Is the Blue Bird of Happiness Around the Corner?

Well, Probably Not. Still, There are good signs. Here are some of them.

 Interesting First 100 Days, Eh?

Well, we cannot say the first 100 days of this administration have been boring. Trump has pursued largely the path he laid out in the campaign. Only some of his voters seem surprised at what that actually mean. Others are still fans but give it time – this dance will get old for about everyone shortly.

There are–finally–signs of resistance and effective pushback popping up all over the country. Let’s take a look at a few of them and draw encouragement from the patterns shaping up.

Politics and Polling
  • Polls at the Lowest at this point for an administration in over 70 years: Trump still has much of his base, but it is eroding, Democrats are almost uniform in hating what is going on, as are the vast majority of Independents. Even among Trump’s base, they overwhelmingly disagree with him on Ukraine and a small majority even dislike how he is running his signature issue of immigration.
  • Mid-term Projections: Never count your chickens until they hatch, but all the usually credible polls say the Democrats (even though they are not loved either) look very likely to retake the House. It would be a miracle, but at least one highly reliable poll now says they have a shot at the Senate. Administrations often loose in the midterms anyway; given the growing unhappiness with Trump, he could take quite a beating in the next round.
 The People Gather
  • Town Hall Meetings: You have seen them, coast to coast and in some very Red areas, not just Blue country. Wait until the full effects of the tariff mess comes to roost and the full impact of crippled government and big time job losses hit home. You ain’t seen nothing yet.
  • Mass Rallies: I frankly am amazed at how many keep happening, and how many people show up for them. Trump could care less, but other politicians get it. We will see the effects of all this on the budget Trump is trying to pass. I don’t think a lot of what he wants will make the cut, although too much will pass.
The Legal System
  • Over 100 Court Cases Lost, At all Levels- In less than 100 days, Trump lost over 100 court cases, and about 120 more are pending. He lost on every level, at times from judges he appointed. His failure to quickly and cleanly follow through with compliance on some of these will haunt him yet and may even cause the Supreme Court to finally stand up and clearly call BS on this Administration.
  • Law Firms That Collapsed At The First Threat From Trump: These are finding they have bought into double losses. First, Trump has made it clear these are just the first tributes he wants from this – more to come. Some people never learn that bowing to a bully just gets you a second kick in the butt. And some who yielded out of worry about loss of clients if they fought back are finding the opposite is true. People are leaving these firms, including big outfits like Microsoft. Good on them.
Finding Our Voice  
  • Listen: A handful of skillful politicians are speaking out clearly, coherently, and powerfully, calling for both dialogue with lost voters and full on combat with all that is Trumpian. My two favorites by far are GOV. Pritzker and former Secretary of Transportation Buttigieg. Gov Walz is in the mix two. We have good leadership potential out there. Now is when we need them to rise up.
  • Standing and Defending: Interesting and ever larger groups of universities and colleges, of law firms, and businesses are banding together, publicly saying they will not bend to tyranny and sharing resources to carry the fight forward. That is remarkably healthy.

We Are Where We Are

 By any reasonable analysis, it has been a disastrous first 100 days for Team Trump, but they are largely on the course they set. They are more incompetent than I expected for a second go around, but the fundamental threats they pose to so many American values is not diminished. They are still in power, still have their plans and resources.

What may save us in the end is – us. America has a long history of flirting with one kind of extremism or another and eventually working back toward the middle.  We might yet do it again, if the Democrats rise to the challenge and people listen to both their conscience and their inherent wisdom to do the right thing.

There is out there an interesting mix of anger on practical grounds (inflation, tariffs, service and jobs loss) & morality (not right to ship people out without process, tired of enemies list and retribution, realization of what a sorry cabinet this is – we are poorly served. Much damage has been done, more to come. But there are signals out there to the effect we may get it right yet. We will be injured, but we can yet protect and restore the real America.

In the meantime, foreign people generally do not seem to blame Americans directly – they feel sorry for us. At least that is what I hear. We are doing overseas travel this Summer. I will let you know what we find in talking to others overseas.

See you next week.

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2 replies to Is the Blue Bird of Happiness Around the Corner?

  1. I agree with your analysis Bill but I am not optimistic in the medium term. I am seeing the Administration steeling itself for a reaction to the tariffs and a determination to ride out the initial public response. I am wonderring what their plan is for dealing with the unrest that is coming. I suspect they are looking to martial law and other measures to keep the public response as low as possible. I am determined to show up anyway. The Poles with Lech Wałęsa are my model. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lech_Wałęsa

    We need to be determined to go to the mat for our democracy. There is no other choice.

    • I think you are right, the odds are high they will try to outlive and suppress resistance.

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