A Few items to Consider
What Kind of Year Is Upon Us?
Thanks to everyone for your patience on the day+ delay on this posting. Still working through a few technical issues but looks like we are pretty much back on line, so here we go.
Too soon to tell, of course. There continue, and in some cases increasing, worrisome things afoot, but also some promising indicators have begun showing up. We will not try to list all those possibilities, but let’s take a look at 10 events/indicators worth observing and we will see how things go from there.
Venezuela: Mostly Bad News, Some Good News
Let’s start out with the few pieces of good news out of all this.
Without approving the operation that took place and recognizing the rest of Maduro’s apparatus is still in place, it hard to deny that there is some good news in the fact that a truly bad news character who stole an election and abused his country is out of power. What follows could be better or could be worse, for the people of Venezuela and for others, but the world should not mourn his loss of power.
The other good news bit out of all this was the operational aspects of the whole thing. The military operations and intelligence support were impressive and seamless. This is not an easy standard by any stretch. I have worried, and continue to worry, about the degradation and misdirection of our armed forces under this regime.
But the two units that did the work here, Delta Force and 160th Aviation, are both units I know pretty well. You may remember that the 160th did the primary aviation piece in the mission to take out Osama Ben Laden. Delta Force is almost hypersensitive to publicity, which is why you hear so much more about Seal Teams than Delta, but Delta is the founding unit for all such special operations by US forces.
Created out of the failed hostage rescue mission in Iran during the Carter administration, this is the gold standard for special operations, and it appears they remain at that high level. The fact that the mission on the ground was over in about five minutes with minimal casualties (none US) speaks volumes.
The Bad News About Venezuela
There is a lot, of course, but here is the short list.
- One, this looks like Gaza II – there is no plan for Day 2 or Contingency plans for possible developments. This will go badly on several fronts.
- Two, this is pretty simply about stealing oil. Trump feels the nationalization that happened years ago and some price rigging by Venezuela “stole our oil.” It is clear that they could care less about the country of Venezuela and its people and that the drug theme is nothing more than a cover story to justify stealing oil.
- China and Russia love this whole operation! What better endorsement could there be for their plans in Ukraine/Eastern Europe and Taiwan that the US doing a similar sort of bullying operation for its own narrow purposes.
- Amazingly, Trump chose to link thoughts about Greenland to all this! The US is further isolated and even less a world leader as a result.
Fifth Anniversary of the January 6 Insurrection
Trump, of course, pardoned all 1600 criminals, making the country less safe and personal responsibility more remote for them all. Interestingly enough, the single best quote on what happened that day came from Mitch McConnell:
“The people who stormed this building believed they were acting on the wishes and instructions of their President. And having that belief was a foreseeable consequence of the growing crescendo of false statements, conspiracy theories, and reckless hyperbole which the defeated President kept shouting into the largest megaphone on planet Earth.”
“Former President Trump’s actions that preceded the riot were a disgraceful, disgraceful dereliction of duty… There’s no question—none—that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of the day. He did not do his job. He didn’t take steps so federal law could be faithfully executed and order restored… It was a disgraceful dereliction of duty.”
And then McConnell voted not to convict Trump under impeachment. More than any one person, McConnell laid out the path we are now on. Had he done the right thing, others in his party would have followed him and all that the US now suffers would not be taking place. It was an unforgivable act, a lack of courage and vision, and one that we all are paying the price for, every day. No forgiveness for this one, ever.
Think You Are The King? Look Over Your Shoulder
When I was growing up Sears Roebuck was the absolute king of American consumer commerce. The stores were everywhere and the catalog was an American institution. Houses built by kits from Sears were all over the country. Today, there are only 5 Sears stores left. The famous, guaranteed for life Craftsman tools brand name (I still have one or two) was sold years ago to Ace Hardware.
The lesson is that commerce and markets are remarkably dynamic and unforgiving. Adapt or die. Sears did not see it coming. Neither did Kodak, Xerox, and many others. One value of a market based system is the requirement to stay alert or be bypassed. Innovate or get beat. As AI grows and other changes take root, what other companies will miss the boat and disappear in the months and years to come? I expect there will be many.
Medical Costs Totally Broken
The reality of what the Administration and the Republican Congress have done to health care in this country is rapidly coming to bear. Millions will loose medical insurance and will suffer because of it, including unnecessary deaths. Rural hospitals have already started closing. The rest of us who still have coverage can expect our costs to go up markedly as well, in large part because hospitals and others will need to cover costs from treating all those now under or noninsured people.
One hopes enough voters pay attention to extract a political price in November. America is singular among developed nations in having the worst health care system on the planet, in that we pay more per capita than anyone else and our results statistics across the board are terrible. None of this is necessary, nor hard to figure out. It is a national shame.
Mayor Mamdani
It will be fascinating to see how the new mayor does in New York City. He is a very different politician. He makes no apologies for who he is and what he plans to do differently, yet has built, as near as I can follow it, a pretty solid team with broad based backgrounds and good qualifications.
I don’t see much of the New York election transferring as valuable lessons for the rest of the country, but elements may well age well and spread. Time will tell. I wish him luck and success.
Watch Those First Two Vetoes
Trump has made his first two vetoes, much earlier than his first ones in his earlier term. These were on two pretty small items of legislation, dealing with Native American rights in a particular area and clean water investments. Both both bills had strong Republican support and were passed by voice votes, which means overwhelming support.
If the sponsors make the case to overturn these vetoes, it is the first sign of Repbulican members of Congress growing a spine – or perhaps another anatomical feature we shall not name here. If not, they continue to underwrite making the Congress a continuing irrelevant failure.
The Kennedy Center Calendar
I have read that the Kennedy Center (we shall not refer to it by its new bastardized name) has exactly one program on the calendar between now and July. A remarkable thing, reflecting a lot of artists doing the right thing for the right reasons. For a lot of them, this is also a very significant financial loss, but they chose to make a stand. Good on them.
I look forward to the day when we see work crews removing those extra letters on the side of the building, restoring its proper name. I am confident that will happen.
While we are at it, maybe the strong kickback on the Kennedy Center will help stop plans for that ridiculous victory arch Trump dreams of; one could imagine what that thing would look like.
Two New Acts of Shame
Early in its tenure, the Trump administration cut over 30,000 positions in the Veterans Administration, an organization short on personnel already. Now a second round of about 35,000 cuts has been announced. In both cases, no rationale, no explanation, no justification. We promised those who risked in all in service that we would take care of them as needed after their service; now we are breaking that promise.
Trump and his buddies were clear in his first term that they wanted to privatize veteran’s medical care. This is a singularly stupid idea. The effects of battlefield injuries, PTSD, and a host of other maladies that some suffer after service are complete mysteries to most medical practitioners and local communities. It takes a community built around the military culture and experience to do this right.
The Second Act Of Shame
This was one I was surprised and disappointed to hear. The American Battle Monuments Commission, a generally wonderful organization that cares for all US military cemeteries overseas, took down plaques honoring Black service members that had long been a part of a cemetery in Belgium. They did this to comply with Administration counter DEI directives. Both US citizens and Belgiians have protested this bit of sacrilege. I expect this same rewriting of history is going on at other sites as well.
Add this to the list of things to restore when we get a real government.
New Postmark Rules
The Post Office has announced a change in how letters are postmarked. Since as far back as anyone can remember, a letter was postmarked when it arrived in a post office. The new rule says letters will be post marked when they are sorted and ready to go out, which can be days later.
A significant impact is likely to be that many people who thought they voted on time by absentee ballot will not have their ballots counted – which is fine with some politicians
Coming Soon: Economics 101 for America
Economics are looking ever more likely to be a dominant factor in public discourse and elections this year, as should be the case. We will devote some time and space in coming editions of this blog looking at what has been named the K Economy and while we are at it, take a look at clarifying some terminology (what is democratic socialism, for example) and remind ourselves the strengths, weaknesses, and history of various economic philosophies (capitalism, socialism, communism, etc.).
Some things are timeless, others are changing in rapid and important ways. This is an important year to pay attention to both.
See you next week (technology gods willing). Best wishes for the new year, to you and to our country (oh, yeah – and to our planet).
Bill Clontz
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