Trump’s Lame Duck Phase May Be Off To An Early Start. Who Is On The Rise?
Political Timing
A lot of people quite naturally are wondering who is most likely to be the Democratic candidate in 2028 and who will carry the Republican banner. The reality is that this sort of thing generally does not begin sorting itself out until the preceding midterms (2026 for this round) is complete.
But given all the turmoil and issues around Trump, positioning may start a bit early this time around. In fact, candidates for presidential nominations actually do, habitually, start their efforts a good three years out, but keep it generally under the radar until after the primaries, things appear to be moving into the visible range a bit early. Still much to early to sort out, but it might be useful to take a look at the developing roster.
More Than The Presidency Is At Stake
Who heads up the Congressional wings is very, very important as well. Not as easy to define, but also important are those I think of as thought leaders and media capture specialists who become the voice and personality of their parties and the definers of issues for the public.
So, with the understanding that it is way too early to count anyone in or out, let’s see who seems to be heading toward major rolls going forward.
Potential Presidential Candidates
At pretty well the top of this list are a number of governors that I find really impressive in many important ways. They have solid records as governors, are effective communicators, haven proven themselves capable of working with and/or beating opposition, and have serious experience in executive leadership, which is quite different from legislative experience (which also carries value). All of these folks have challenges and downsizes – they are real people. But they strike me as really solid and proven capable, and worthy of consideration. If any of them come out on top, they could carry the day.
On this list, I would include Gov Newsom of CA (I know, California sounds like a tough sale elsewhere, but he could be a strong candidate and has zero problems with tough engagements); Gov JB Pritzker of Illinois (yes, an older fat white guy billionaire but one heck of a guy – I really could envision him doing well in the White House); Gov Andy Beshear of KY (actually increased his margin upon reelection, works effectively with a Republican legislature, and is a proven crisis manager).
Also on my short list is Governor Josh Shapiro of PA (not my favorite, but surely capable and was on the short list for VP last time around); and MD Governor Wes Moore, who is doing really well as Governor and as a crisis manager (I admit to a bit of bias, since he is a fellow 82nd Airborne Division vet, but by any standard he is a top tier prospect).
Others? Yes, Indeed – Several More
Perhaps a second tier might include GOV Gretchen Whitmer of MI (although she has been a bit more conciliatory towards Trump than I would like, she has a solid record as governor and a protector of voting rights); GOV Michelle Lynn Lujan Grisham of NM (one of the most complete bios of anyone on the list). Much too soon to know, but the new governors of VA and NJ might join this list at some point. Both are rock solid coming out of the starting gate.
One non-governor high on the list in my view is Pete Buttigieg. Yeah, I know, could America elect a gay president? Maybe not, but in my view one of the best minds in the business and all in all the best communicator in the bunch, including when working in solid Red areas.
Not on the list in my view? Either the President or Vice President candidates from the last run, even though I like and respect them both. Lots of noise about AOC running. I think she is very effective in Congress but has no real chance of winning a national election.
What About Other Than President?
Several new voices are rising that have real potential to lead. Interestingly enough, I would include the new Mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani, could play a role in seeing how well new views can be carried out and communicated. Don’t know if he can pull it off or not, but his transition team is shaping up nicely with competent people. I do not see him on a national stage, but his success locally could have national benefits.
A fairly junior member of Congress, Rep. Jake Auchincloss of MA, has real potential. A veteran, skilled communicator, thoughtful politician. I like his blog, Simple But Not Easy
( https://jakeauch.substack.com ). Very readable and thoughtful.
Speaking of Veterans, this Congress has 100 vets in its ranks, by far the most in many years. Many are young Democrats that bode well for the years to come. There are Republican young vets also, perhaps giving the possibility of some shared ground based on the shared experience of military service. Some of these are already well known (Tammy Duckworth and Mark Kelly (who might also make a presidential run), for example, but many more are newly arrived and bear watching.
The numbers change during the year, but at the start of the current Congress, here are the interesting statistics:
- Nine women veterans serve in Congress in 2025, the largest total in history.
- The group includes 28 Democrats and 72 Republicans.
- Congress will have 46 Army veterans, 25 Navy veterans, 16 Air Force veterans and 13 Marine Corps veterans.
- About one-third (31) began their military careers after January 2000. Twenty-one started before 1980.
- Twenty veterans will serve in the Senate, and 80 will serve in the House.
- Texas has the largest caucus of members with military experience (11), followed by Florida (9) and California (7).
Four More Powerful Voices To Watch
One is Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who clearly enjoys taking the fight on anytime, anywhere.
Another one I find most interesting is Texas state legislator Rep. Jame Talarico, who is running for the US Senate next year. He was completely unknown, even in TX, a year ago – now he is tied with the incumbent Republican Senator in polls and has impressive ranks of small donors and volunteers. He is about up there at the Buttigieg level as an effective communicator. Interestingly enough, he is also a seminarian, who is really effective in taking on the abuse that is Christian Nationalism.
I think Sen. Elissa Blair Slotkin of MI makes the cut. Former CIA Analyst, DoD official, former member of the US House of Representatives, she is another rock solid rather new politician with excellent communications skills and a sharp mind.
And finally, for this round, I would include Senator John Hickenlooper, the former governor of Colorado, former Denver mayor, businessman, geologist., and a brewmaster (!). He was an excellent governor and mayor. Hickenlooper should be a national figure. He made an unsuccessful effort before at the national level, but I think he merits a second look.
Who Else?
Who have I left out that is on your list? We are all just speculating at this point, but this is a good time to look a bit far and wide for prospects to consider for various leadership positions. One thing we have not yet discussed is Congressional leadership. Some changes are in the works among key committees in both houses of Congress. Surely it is time for Shumer to step down in the Senate. Wish we could put Nancy Pelosi through a time machine and bring back that level of leadership in a new generation.
See you next week.
Bill Clontz
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Let’s grow our circle.
This gives me a lot of hope for our future!