And Why We Should Care
Credit Where Due
Before getting into the substance of current events, let’s give a bit of credit where it is due, in three observations:
- The Biden Plan. What is outlined in the current documents is largely what the Biden team drew up almost two years ago. Taken as a whole, it is a reasonable foundation upon which one could build lasting peace in the region. The Biden team gets credit (although not from Trump) for laying out the framework that the key players could accept.
- Trump’s Squeeze on Netanyahu. The plan outlined is pretty much the Biden plan that Trump and Netanyahu decided to shelve during the last US election (remember Netanyahu’s trip to Mar a Lago?). But in the end, likely largely because of the headaches resulting from the Israeli attack of Qatar, pushed Trump to favor a deal and he put pressure enough on Netanyahu to get the deal accepted. Biden should have tried harder and been tougher, but he did not. Trump did.
- Arab Countries Stepped Up Pressure on Hamas. There is surely a lot of back-channel communications that you and I know nothing about, but it does appear that the Gulf states largely came on board for an end to the conflict, putting great pressure on an already weakened Hamas to get on board. What these countries did helped move things along substantially.
The Good News
There is no small amount of news worth celebrating now:
Fighting has stopped, at least for now. Israelis and Palestinians are no longer dying on a daily basis. The remaining live hostages have finally been released. No doubt, they have horrible stories to relate, and they need to be heard. Many bodies of hostages have been returned, although many have not and are not accounted for, and may not be fully accounted for in the end.
This is an excruciatingly painful thing for Israeli families to bear, and I hope the numbers dwindle. But it is a sad possibility that some were held hostage, and murdered, by groups not responding to Hamas. Given the situation in Gaza and the level of destruction, some may never be accounted for at all.
Aid is beginning to flow back into Gaza. Still not at nearly the level needed, but it appears to be improving. It will be interesting to see what Israel and Hamas do to affect aid distribution in the coming days, weeks and months. Don’t look for much good news.
Many Palestinian prisoners have been or will shortly be released. This is a mixed bag of an outcome. A lot of people were swept up by Israeli forces during the conflict; many of them likely should not have been arrested; returning them home is a good thing.
But there are also a number of seriously evil and criminal people being released (some for foreign exile) who really are dangerous and violent, who deserved thief life sentences. Releasing them had to have been a bitter pill for the Israeli government and many citizens.
The Bad News
There is no governance in place in Gaza and not one likely to form up anytime soon, if at all. Hamas steps into the gap, again.
There is no acceptable, credible security force in Gaza, and no concrete plans to establish one. Hamas and any number of gangs are filling the gap. Wonder how that will look? Take a look at Haiti today – hell on earth for ordinary citizens.
There is no disarmament by Hamas, at least not yet. I doubt if there will be in the future, and so the prospects for democracy and civil security are dim indeed.
The No Surprise Bad News
This is the most painful, unnecessary part of all this. The things we are about to discuss in this part of the blog were 100% avoidable; most were foreseen.
Ther is no Plan B/Day 2 Plan going forward. This is typical Trump – no depth, no patience, no mental discipline, no sense of history and how it affects the future. There were some general statements in the documents around the Gaza “settlement,” and some hopes expressed at the impromptu gathering in Egypt when peace was declared, but nothing that even faintly resembled genuine plans.
Even areas that were addressed had no attention to detail as to content, timelines, enforcement, verifications, resources – none of it was there. Most of the gridwork leading up to all this was done by Trump’s big donor that seems to represent Trump in the Middle East and Trump’s son in law. Real professionals who know how to do this were not part of the process at any meaningful level.
The ugly truth is that priority was for speed – get something of an agreement done as fast as possible. It could be that this was the case to get prisoners released or to build momentum, but I think not. This was raced as part of a shameless campaign to get a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump. He does not deserve one, but that is another conversation for later.
There is no serious rebuild plan for Gaza. Nothing developed with the residents, nothing funded, nothing coordinated. Trump’s obscene dream of a resort center has more detail than anything meeting what people need. The destruction of Gaza is nearly 100%. Not having a real plan to deal with this is unacceptable and will only lead to more extremism in the future.
A Lost Opportunity
This could have been a moment to include important matters on the West Bank and in developing a Two State Solution. None of that happened. I suspect that is in part because Trump has no interest or capacity to deal with such complexity. It is also likely that Netanyahu was unlikely to have the votes in his own cabinet to go forward had these two issues been included.
Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has some roll in the process going forward – perhaps he can get some movement. There are serious crimes and much domestic terrorism going on in the West Bank daily. A Two State Solution is still the best chance for long term peace in the region, but it will not happen with a Netanyahu government.
Will Progress Hold?
It is possible, but I think it unlikely – an opportunity wasted. Netanyahu has options to restart the war, because of all of the above missing areas and claiming that Hamas broke the agreement (which it probably will). At some level, it has already started, with Israeli soldiers and Palestinians being killed over the last couple of days and threats to stop all aid coming into Gaza. That prospect of being able to restart fighting probably brought Netanyahu the votes he needed in his cabinet to accept the current arrangement.
So many people have suffered for so long in this region. They deserve better, and we need not have another area of turmoil to be embroiled in, yet again.
Bill Clontz
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