There Are Two Areas of Vulnerability for the Harris Ticket; This Is The Main One
Some Things Never Change
Most of remember the famous line from the first Bill Clinton Campaign, first spoken by the always outspoken James Carville (a guy many of us think of delightedly as the reincarnation of Hunter Thompson), It’s The Economy, Stupid. His point was that voters feel their wallets as they reach for the voting lever. How they feel about the economy as it affects their lives carries great weight in voting choices.
So has it always been, so will it always be. While the list of genuinely important issues in this election is long (you know, things like preserving democracy, for example), how people feel about the economy is first among equals for many voters.
How Is This Playing Out in 2024?
Early in the campaign, Trump had a huge lead against Biden on this issue, and that transferred over when Harris became the candidate. Harris has made some very steady and impressive progress in cutting that lead down substantially, but it is still a burden for that campaign to battle.
The short version of Trump support goes along these lines: People remember things were cheaper during the Trump administration than they are now. Some also think Trumps hawkish position on things like imports sounds good, and still others believe that his background as a businessman make him the candidate who better understands economics.
It may not be possible to convince someone you are talking with about all this to relook their views, but just in case, let’s look at some key points that a reasonably open minded person might wish to consider. There is no denying things cost more than they did 5-6 years ago. We will talk about why that is (and note how that too is getting better) shortly As a lead in, let’s note some pretty basic facts take the air out of the Trump tire.
The Reality of Presidential Economic Power
First, presidents surely have some influence over the economy, but not nearly as much as many might wish to think. In any given time, the Federal Reserve, an independent authority (as it should be, even though Trump hates that fact), has way more influence, and even it is basically reacting to our massive, market-driven economy. Government control is an overstatement.
Second, any incoming president has virtually no impact in the first year of their administration. Their first year is pretty much what their predecessor’s term left behind. New administrations’ policy and legislation takes time to have any effect.
Third, pulling an economy out of a deep recession is vitally important, and should be done as vigorously as possible. An unfortunate reality is that this will also lead, inevitably, to inflation. I know of literally no national economic recovery that was inflation free. Biden and the Federal Reserve knew that and battled to bring it down quickly, which they did. In fact, they did that better than almost any economist expected, and that trend continues.
So, How Did Trump Do?
Things were cheaper back then, but not because of any brilliant economic policy by Trump. They were cheaper because we were in the worst recession since the Great Depression. Things were cheaper but record numbers of people lost their jobs, as manufacturing continued to move overseas, and the pandemic closed down business. Reflecting on those lower prices with nostalgia is like saying you are skinny and not noting it is because you are starving.
Three other Trump failures in the economy need to be highlighted for people:
- Tax Cuts: In his first year, he passed a massive tax cut, almost all of which went to the wealthiest. He did so based on the old trickle-down theory that all that saved tax money would go into more jobs and infrastructure investment. As always, none of that happened. Most of that money went into executive compensation, stock buybacks, and payments to lobbyists to get still more tax cuts.
Those tax cuts and his general management of the federal budget gave us the single largest deficit increase in the history of our nation. We will be paying for that forever. In fact, he added more deficit than all other presidents combined.
- Tariffs: For some odd reason, Trump loves import duties and similar levies. He did a lot of this in his term. The result was that we all paid more than we needed to for many items and many American farmers and companies lost foreign markets, some apparently forever. To hide that lost, Trump paid out billions of our money to farmers to make up for their loss. Countries like Argentina and Australia very much appreciated the new markets they gained. Tariffs have value as a tool but only in limited applications. Understand that for the consumer, this is a tax, plain and simple. We pay the tariff, not the exporter.
- Pandemic Recovery: By every measure imaginable, Trump had the worst pandemic management of any major government. We lost hundreds of thousands more people than we should have, further crippling our economy. When the Biden administration arrived, they found zero planning on anything for recovery – zero. They did not know this until they took office because Trump, in yet another unforgivable sin, allowed no transition contacts between the two administrations. By the way, he is doing that again now – no transition team interface at all. That is criminal negligence, yet again.
How About That Business Experience?
That is a bad joke. Trump has had no less than six businesses that went bankrupt. That can happen to any business, for a myriad of reasons, but when one guy fails six times, one should take note. Trump left others holding the bag for his mismanagement half a dozen times. Not a record to brag about.
In addition, Trump was famous for cheating his subcontractors and partners, often failing to pay them or underpaying them. He has been sued more than any business person in America, for good reason.
Running a business is very different from running a government. Trump has the unique decision of doing both really, really badly. There is nothing in his record to merit confidence. As for the future, economists are almost universally in agreement that what little he has disclosed of his economic plans will lead to even more massive deficit, labor shortages, trade conflicts, and a major recession.
The Harris economics are expected to grow the deficit as well, but 2/3 less than Trump, and her plans constitute an investment in the middle class and the economy overall. Harris adds to the deficit to invest. Trump adds to it as just a debt, with no payback.
Remember Biden Economics?
Not a term one hears much anymore, but we should. Biden had a solid plan to rebuild the economy, work in partnership with the Federal Reserve, rebuild our trade relationships, and invest in both the middle class and infrastructure. He delivered on all that with flying colors.
- The reality is that yes, we pay more for some items now than we did earlier, but that rise stopped across the board and the ones of most concern, food and fuel, are actually coming down. In fact, the costs of food and fuel are much lower in America than in any other major economy.
- Our inflation rate is the lowest among major economies in the world.
- Team Biden has broken records, some going back over 50 years, for job growth, economic growth, manufacturing growth, infrastructure investment, inflation control, trade balances, energy production in all sectors, and more. It is a record of unprecedented accomplishment
Conclusions
Actual facts are as clear as can be. Trump has no capacity to manage any part of our economy. He ruined it last time and would do even more damage next time, as economists almost universally note. Harris will build on the Biden successes and has real plans to address ongoing economic problems like food and housing costs.
I suggest we elect her to do that job and give her a Congress willing to actually do the work to make it happen.
Many of you have already voted, many of us can early vote in a few days. Final election day is upon us in 22 days. Look for any opportunity over these 3 weeks to pop the Trump bubble on the economy. We cannot afford this guy.
See you next week.
Bill Clontz
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