Laurel & Hardy Come to Mind

Not The Election We Expected. Now What?

The Value of Reflection

Like most everyone who reads this blog, I expect, I was taken aback (to put it mildly) by the presidential election. Not the result so many hoped for, and at least tentatively expected. Enough was “off track” that it seemed to me prudent to take a deep breath, sort through some data, reflect on it all a bit, and then organize thoughts and potential actions.

My first reaction was that famous quote from Laurel and Hardy, amended to say “Well, America – another fine mess you got us into.” A true statement, but not enough to leave it there.

I think that was the right conclusion to pause a bit; I am glad I chose that path. So, with that as a foundation, let’s see where we are and where we might go next.

The Waves of Reaction and Commentary

As one might expect, not a lot of media or observers took the same approach. Monday morning quarterbacking kicked into high gear within hours of it being clear who won what. Much of it was, in my few, superficial and lacking in substance. Statements like, “Well, of course he won. We knew that was likely all along because….” were seen all over the place. Mostly from sources that had not forecast anything close to the outcome. For me at least, it was easy to tune out this kind of stuff. Such reactive material is neither useful nor helpful.

There were, happily, some thoughtful inputs, early on, and those tended to have equally thoughtful and useful follow ups. As one would expect, inputs from Heather Richardson, Michael Beschloss, and a few others led the pack in useful discourse, reflection, and suggestions. I am grateful for their sustained contributions to national dialogue.

What I was a bit surprised to see was an early Round II of the Blame Game from several sources. Some of this came from journalists and analysts. Some from politicians. Bernie Sanders wasted no time crying out that if only we were more socialist, we would have won, and he is starting yet again a campaign in that direction. As has often been the case in the past, he cites some correct issues, then proposes solutions that are not going to happen. Let’s hope we do better than this going forward. There is an old observation that when people don’t know what to do, they do what they know. That will not cut it for this round.

Others were quick, too quick in my view, to speculate on who did something wrong that cost the election. This one is way more complex than all that, although (as noted below), some elements were indeed pretty obvious; they just were not as determinate as some observers wished.

 A Few Items of Framework

A primary reason I chose a period of reflection (which is not over, of course) was to avoid focusing on one issue or another in isolation. One may correctly perceive a shortfall but if not framed in the larger context, one could still miss the root causes and potential solutions. Getting the right value on the right element takes a bit of work.

So for whatever it is worth, here are the anchor points I see as mapping out where we are and how we might wish to proceed. We will talk more about many elements of this over time, but for now, the short version:

• Trump won, fair and square (sort of). I hate that, but no value in denying the reality. It was not a huge victory (less than 50% of the votes) and the smallest margin in over a century), but enough to win the popular vote (by about the same amount Hillery won it in her run and about half what Biden won in his run) and the electoral college. Republicans manipulated media, made it hard to vote, etc. but all pretty much within the bounds of hardball politics.
• Our issues here are not just with Trump, but with our fellow citizens. Too many people knew who and what Trump is and chose to vote for him anyway. Others indulged in short term memory loss, buying the line that all was better under Trump before. Complete BS, but people went for it in surprising numbers. They thought they were voting their own self-interest. Face it. They will shortly see how wrong they were on that front.
• Parties regularly lose their butt with some frequency. Remember 1972? We won exactly one state. Remember all those years FDR exiled Republicans to the wilderness? Bottom line is that losses happen, although with this one, the cost to the country will likely be disproportionally enormous.
• The thing about democracy is that it is a very two-headed creature. Voters often make terrible choices for the worst possible reasons. But the system, if it survives, has the ability to change course and correct. They continue until they crash and burn, for the most part. We have seen these traits and outcomes over and over, here and abroad, throughout history.
• Autocracies do not have this ability to adapt. Trump seeks an autocracy and so is more likely than not to burn out and crash, perhaps as early as before the midterms. Our risks are high this time, but one can hope democracy will self-correct yet again. Whether or not that happens anytime soon is yet to be determined.
• Citizens who disagree with what happens have three choices: One, crawl in a hole and hide forever, or give up and leave the country. Two, stay angry and spend the coming years in bitter anger and rock throwing; an understandable choice that, candidly, has its appeal. Three, stay angry, but get busy underwriting democracy and corrective action at local and national levels. Time to make your choice, Fellow Americans.

Not surprisingly, on election night, I liked the sound of Option 1, and I spent a couple of weeks engaging in Option 2. I found myself thinking, “OK, America – you made your choice – now live with it.” But eventually, I recognized that only Option 3 makes sense if one has any hope that we could, possibly, get better as we go.

 Now What?

 Next week I will welcome the opportunity to share three topics with you and invite your thoughts. Let’s talk about the following:

• So, How Bad Is It and Why Did This Happen? (Hint: Its really bad)
• Anything Useful and Hopeful Out There? (Actually, more than you may think)
• What to focus on for the next 18 months or so (People, processes and resources)

See you then.

Bill Clontz

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