America Will Take a Big Leap to the Next Peak – or Into the Abyss
This Will be One for the History Books – and the Rest of Our Lives
How many times have we have heard – or said – “This is the most important election…”? Yeah, they all seem to feel that way, and at the time, each met that criterion. Surely the presidential election of 2016 did. Elect Donald Trump? That would be a disaster. Thanks to the anachronism of the Electoral College, we blew it. The rest is, sadly, history. The election of 2020? Definitely makes the cut. Imagine what the country and the world would be like after four more years of Trump.
But Trump left a sludge trail behind him that is most active today. Should the Trump wing win in 2022 and 2024, the America we know is likely gone. So, yeah. The most important elections are coming up.
The Historical Trends and Current Standings
To raise concerns still further, the historical trends are quite strong that the president’s party generally loses seats in the Congress in the midterms.
Right now, the Democrats have razor thin majorities in both houses. Biden’s ratings are remarkably low – a condition that makes zero sense, but there we are. So, the signs are not good.
But there are forces at work this time around that make the next election rounds real coin tosses. Could go either way. Keep your fingers crossed for a couple of years.
Never Before Influences
There are a lot of variables out there, of course. Four stand out to me as likely to be defining.
- The January 6 Attack on the Capitol Committee Hearings: These are being exceptionally well done. Not enough people are watching them, but a lot are and many more are following them. I am reminded that the Watergate hearings, which shaped our politics for a generation, did not take full effect for several months. The current hearings are already affecting public perceptions and seem to be adding fuel to Department of Justice investigations. They may make quite the difference in the end.
- Supreme Court Guns and Abortion Decisions: What more could be said on this? Well, that this is likely only the beginning of what this court has in mind. If this does not bring out the vote on a massive scale, nothing will.
- Cross Voting in Primaries and Perhaps General Elections: There is an interesting trend in various places around the country of people who would not normally do so voting in Republican primaries. They are choosing to cut out extremists at the primary ballot box. We saw this in my own district with the end of Rep. Cawthorn’s joke of a political career.
Democrats in Utah chose to back a former Republican Independent to have a shot at retiring one of Trump’s strongest apologists. Many may vote for Liz Cheney in both the primary and the general election, even though they do not agree with many of her political positions but respect her ethics. This could be an interesting trend nationwide.
- Conspiracy Theory and QAnon Candidates on the Ballot: Some seriously strange and harmful people are running for offices all around the country. Some of the most dedicated Trump conspiracy fans are likely to win state offices. How this crowd does will tell us much about who we are as a country.
More To Come
A lot is still coming up. More from the Supreme Court after 1 OCT is possible. There are the remaining January 6 hearings, with more information still coming in. There are possible indictments at state level (NY, GA) and Federal Levels of Trump and his cohorts. What charges come out when against whom could be exceptionally important. And who knows what else.
So, yes cross your fingers. And hold your breath. We have a heck of a ride ahead of us.
Bill Clontz
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