This Feels Like a Mix of Laurel & Hardy with the Alamo – But Not for Long
To Biden or Not to Biden? That is the Question
Well, actually that is not THE question. At least not as a simple up or down. The discussion, if I may use that polite term, since the infamous debate actually raises a number of questions and parameters. Sorry, cannot just focus on one.
I deliberately chose not to discuss this matter last week, simply because it was too soon and too much was unknown. We will talk about what is included here that must be addressed (3 key elements) momentarily, but first an essential detour – the Press, which decided not to take a bit of time to sort this out before speaking out.
The Media Fails This One
The media overall has failed the country massively at this point, at a level I could not imagine. No doubt about it – Biden had a miserable debate, and rumors float of other signs of diminished capacity. All this is fair game.
What is not fair, nor useful, is the jump to decision by so many editorial boards, based solely on the debate, calls the very next day for Biden to step down. From there it got worse. By any tabulation, the focus on Biden has been almost overwhelming, while Trump has gotten a free ride. Very little notation on his lies and exaggerations in the debate (What, we should be used to it by now, so let it pass?).
And how about Trump’s mental and emotional state? Ever listened to one of his campaign rally speeches? I do, and there are whole blocks of what could only be called gibberish. Do voters no deserve to have that highlighted and compared as well?
Trump has long shown clear signs of delusion, lack of concentration, memory lapses, misidentifying key leaders, and more. Read anything about that this past week+? Me, neither. We speak of the media being so important as to be considered the Fourth Estate in government. It has been in decline on several grounds over the last couple of decades, but this is a new low. The country is damaged by this just when we can least afford it.
Three Factors That Define the Right Decisions
Whether Biden stays or goes will, and should, pivot on three key factors: politics, governance, and time. Let’s take a look at each of them in turn, recognizing all three count and all three are interconnected in really complex and subtle ways.
#1 – Politics
We often use the word “politics” as a swear word, something unpleasant. Get over it. Politics is how we wind up with people in charge, so it counts a lot. In this case, the main issue is who can defeat Trump? Who can best stir the base and attract a whole list of others needed to win? Who is well known enough, generates enough confidence across groups, and can campaign effectively. There are some terrific possibilities were there more time. I have a pretty long list of people I would really like to see jump in – for 2028. Jumping is with less than 120 days until the election? That is a very different question, with many fewer options and many fewer decision makers.
The second element in politics is what does Joe want to do? Should he decide to step down soon, endorse a chosen replacement, and work with everyone to get the convention down pat, a change might be doable. If it is a group mounting the fight to a sitting president who chooses to run, the convention and the election will likely both be a losing mess. There simply is not time for a fight; that would be a gift to Trump. If Joe has to leave, he has to say so himself.
A lot of people assume the current VP would be the replacement candidate. Likely so, and that is a mixed bag. I think she has gotten some unfair treatment as VP and was a good Attorney General for California and a very effective Senator. But her last campaign was terrible. I could never answer the question as to why she was running and what would she do with the office. Hopefully, that is a past-tense conundrum.
I expect she would bring in some groups now soft on support but may lose an equal number. At least Trump would be stumped on how to fight her. I am not a big fan, but if she becomes the candidate, will work my butt off for her. She could handle the job but would likely not be a great president. I would love to be proven wrong on that one.
#2 – Governance
When all this is over, the winner is going to have to run our government and lead the country in what I am convinced will be challenging times, especially in foreign policy. No matter who wins, if the country seems badly divided and in turmoil, there are countries who would feel emboldened to engage the US in many ways, including militarily. The next decade will be exceedingly dangerous.
This is perhaps the most important area that causes me to hope Joe makes it. On his very worst day, he knows more (people, facts, dynamics) than damn near anyone alive. The speed with which he brought NATO back from the death watch Trump put it on and mounted an international defense of Ukraine was as impressive as any crisis management I have ever known.
Close behind in value is Biden’s proven ability to pick an A Team in every area and let them lead in their areas. Having a deep bench is something that gets little attention, but it is hugely important. Compare the cabinet officers and judges Trump picked vs those chosen by Biden.
#3 – Timing
The Republican convention takes place in less than two weeks. The Democratic convention comes a little over a month. The election is less than 120 days away. No fudge factor on any of this. Such a set of timelines makes what is possible a very short list indeed.
So, for starters, those calling for Biden to quit: we need to hear who you think replaces him and why you think they could win, as well as govern. The fact that Biden is wounded, and some other person is “really good” will not do the job. As a voter, I need to see a clear path that looks reasonably possible for a new candidate.
Otherwise, sit down and be quite and let’s get on with the reelection of the President. Give us an unknown candidate, or one with lots of baggage, or one who gets the nomination after a bitter fight, and you might as well buy a ticket to a Trump inauguration party.
Some Additional Important Elements to Recognize
Decision Makers – Sorry, that is not you nor I. Given the short timeline and the complexity of the politics, people with national party responsibilities are going to have to make the call and hope we support it. There is simply too much the rest of us do not know to make an informed guess ourselves.
Foreign Interference – Count on false news and all the foreign source stuff we saw last time, on a much wider and more sophisticated scale this time around. Be skeptical of everything.
What is at Stake – It literally does not get more important than this one. At this time, given the not-so-Supreme Court and the Plan 2025 crowd, should Trump win much of what we think of as America disappears. It may well get back on track someday, but possibly not. Not in my lifetime. Whatever calculations can be made as to who/what beats Trump – has my full throated support.
My Judgement – For What It Is Worth
I have little doubt that Biden has lost some capacity. Mostly physical, but likely some challenges with memory, etc. But unless some serious evidence comes out otherwise, this seems manageable. Given the times and the team he has assembled, I am far more confident with Biden remaining in charge, with him being realistic about his capacities and his team reinforcing him.
Even with said challenges, he is light-years better than Trump in every imaginable way. His experience and judgement are so valuable, that I am willing to take on board some assistance to manage his load. We need what he brings to the table.
So, I hope Joe can and does stick it out and people rally around him. As I look at Biden’s record almost across the board over the last four years, and as I look at what is at stake domestically and internationally in the years ahead, I want experience, judgement, and a moral foundation to lead us in good times and bad.
We do not have a lot of time to make that call. Certainly, by 1 AUG, we all need to have fished or cut bait. I wish we did not have to deal with this. I wish we had two younger candidates running for president and that the Republicans would choose someone sane and capable enough to actually lead this nation.
But that is not where we are. Bottom line: If Democratic leadership is convinced Biden is a higher risk to loose and the down ballot would go with him, they need to convince him to step down and anoint a successor. Short of that set of concerns, time to get behind Biden and win this thing, including down ballot.
As a footnote, this conversation seems to be happening too often of late – people staying in power longer than they should. I value seniority and experience greatly, and we all age differently. But look back to Ruth Bader Ginsberg, Dianne Feinstein, William O. Douglass, Strom Thurmond. Lots of evidence today of that with SEN Johnson of Wisconsin in the Senate, and many more, of course.
Maybe it is time to say we have an upper age limit for key positions, even when it means losing some valuable experience. We need not to do this dance again.
Nothing is easy, nothing is for sure. Every choice carries a cost and risks.
We live in interesting times.
Bill Clontz
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This is a most perfect summary of what needs to happen, so thanks! I’ve been with Biden all the way and can’t believe how spineless Democrats can be. We hope to meet you when we get to Deerfield! Joyce Sederburg
Bill,
You have captured the current situation very well. I fully agree that with the people that President Biden has brought into this administration, the country would be in good hands no matter what happens with Biden down the line.
Hi Bill – Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this critically important issue. It helped me feel more confident about my own thoughts and opinions. The near total failure of our mainstream press to deliver complete coverage of the recent Biden-Trump debate has done so much damage and it seems they are not interested in cleaning up their mess. To me, it seems the push by some to replace President Biden in the campaign is far too risky to even consider now.
amen and I am on board with Biden
My 3 kids and a niece, all in their ’50s, carried on a substantive (to me) email discussion of an article by Ezra Klein recently in the NYT which I think is an interesting view of that very liberal group and generation. (Uniformly disgusted with the Democratic Party’s incompetent messaging and campaigning skills.) I compiled that thread into a single narrative, shared here:
What I sent:
jeanne@jldtifft.com
I have come around to Clyburn’s point of view and hope that Democrat Party movers and shakers take it up. This NYT piece by Ezra Klein outlines it well enough for me to want to share with you all …
Jeanne
John Tifft john@tifft.co.uk
The Democrats should have done this 3 years ago to anoint someone early to give them time to canvas the country & prep for this election…..
Isabel Tifft
Hi Mom,
Interesting view.
A year ago, or even 6 months ago, I’d have been all over it. Now, the election is scant months away. Although the current crop of Dem leadership rejoices in brinkmanship, bossiness, and voraciously cannibalizing anyone who visibly breaks ranks, I think they’ve missed the boat. This is inviting a level of confusion & distrust among voters that might be unprecedented… or even unpresidented.
Drama, clogging the news feeds, and fomenting feelings of intrigue are all very well, but American voters have proven ad nauseam that they’re interested in voting for a president they feel comfortable with, *however pathological that comfort might be*. They enjoy drama, but value relatable predictability over real competence. (Drumpf is nothing if not predictable– predictably appetite-driven and chaotic– and a lot of people find that relatable.)
It’d be fun, from a cynical perspective, to watch Trump bash his head against a Dem-driven drama-fest, but I don’t see it going well. They’ve done a great job of suppressing & smoothing over anyone pushy and imaginative enough to stand out much, and the cultural shift required to go from that to being able to foment a new crop of candidates in a matter of weeks is not realistic.
The Dems made a good enough case for themselves in 2020 and Biden handled that difficult period (in my opinion) brilliantly, overall.
Since then, the Dems have continued to eschew the warm populism they nearly started to show, and have consistently failed to make a good case for themselves as the party of healing, stability, responsibility, and relative security. The best they can do is, “We’re not Trump.” As long as they’re mimicking the Clinton-era GOP, they’re not even convincing enough about that.
It’s a low bar and it’s pretty heart-breaking that they still have trouble clearing it, but there we go.
I think they need to take one single page from the GOP playbook: go for the long game. Let different subgroups arise and compete healthily; OMG, discuss differences and model negotiation as a way to move forward. Lay out a blatantly populist message, because the GOP suck at that, stirring anxiety instead of creating solutions. Fund think-tanks that pull together the *actual, proven benefits* of policies that exclude trickle-down economics and short-termism in the markets. Show the considerable value of good government over less government.
There’s soooo much to work with, but the leading Dems are so infatuated with themselves and their reactivity-over-responsiveness that they keep ignoring it, dissing and defunding those who do otherwise and ultimately cutting off their own noses to spite their faces.
They’re actually afraid of being called names, and continue to allow the extreme-right wing to redefine & villify terms like “liberal” and “woke” to mean something bad. And “snowflake”? Please, anyone who thinks snowflakes are an ineffectual bunch can come and shovel my driveway.
As a queer old virago, I do know something about turning the tables on name-calling, but those blue boneheads have failed to learn.
Wow, I had no idea I had that much to say! I usually shrug and move on WRT current events & politics, so I guess it has been building up. I’m truly disgusted that the Dems have turned on Biden so hard now, instead of supporting him more along the way and taking some responsibility for throwing themselves behind an old guy with predictable foot-in-mouth issues and stress-related neurology. *Of course* he’s going to muddle some details, including names. And? Is this different for him? Are we surprised? His purpose is to provide guidance, ethos, and overarching strategy. The other stuff is why he hires good staff.
This was mitigable, if not avoidable. The Dems are so busy buying into short-sighted irresponsibility and playing the blame-game I don’t see how they’re going to get it together in time.
With love from your little ray of sunshine 😉,
Isy
Nicole Drapeau
I dunno. It could be a Couch running for President on the Democratic ticket and I’ll vote for them.
Robert Tifft
I think Nicole has hit the nail on the head with what the Democrats believe/are hoping. I agree with John and Isy that the Democrats are terrible when it comes to messaging, planning, and running campaigns. It is like they can focus on one (maybe two) things at a time, but that is it! I had an old Marine buddy run for House in Michigan a few elections ago and one of the (many) issues he had was his campaign manager forgot to sign paperwork properly! For my that is so symptomatic of the Democrats in general.
This time, the Democrats have built one of the strongest economies since the post-War boom. They have advanced our technological base with the Chips Act. They are creating cutting edge technical capabilities within the United States. They support rights for all regardless of sex/color/whatever. They are the party that is looking forward and building a nation that is embracing the future. And we never hear about these things. We never hear about the good, the plans, and the future (Sergio Leone music here please!) Instead we hear about whatever reaction the Democrats and the pundits have to say about the topics that the Trumpicans want us to talk about.
If you read the transcripts of the debate, one candidate spoke in details, numbers, and specific things. The other spoke in hyperbole, fantasy, and lies. Guess which one everyone is saying has problems…. Now I agree, he is old and I don’t think should run. But there are practical reasons for his staying (all the money went to the Biden/Harris campaign and their campaign is the ones that are already registered in each state for the election, the polls of the black vote is VERY pro-Biden and not so interested in other candidates, he has a great record of governance as well as coming from behind and winning.
I don’t think Biden should have started this campaign. But he is here. The Democratic Party is going to have to step up its game. It is not even officially campaign season and we are already calling it?!? When General Grant arrived to take command in the East the Union generals kept telling him what he could not do because Lee would do this or that to them. Grant’s reply was something like, “I don’t care and I don’t want to hear what General Lee is going to do to us. I want to only hear about what we are going to do to him.” It is time for the Democratic Party to acting like General Grant and start doing to Trump. Why aren’t they publishing verbatim transcripts of his speeches? How about a social media quiz of guess who said these crazy things? And they are all Trump quotes.
Whomever is running, the Democrats need to start taking control of the conversation. The “mainstream media” is doing what the conservatives want and are questioning the Democrats, but giving the Trumpicans a pass.
Sorry, my response surprised me. (Good company Isabel!) Anyway, no matter who is running against the Shitgibbon that is the Great Cheeto, they are getting my vote!
Enjoy,
Huck
John Tifft john@tifft.co.uk
Well, this increasingly seems like a Sunday political talk show! How fab…!
I find it fascinating how Trump (and over here the likes of Boris Johnson) have normalised lying; sometimes more bald-face, other times more subtle and difficult to challenge. And this despite the news approach of ‘fact checking’ statements. I think that’s partly what’s at play here: Trump lying isn’t news, and people now glaze over the fact checking. However Biden being clearly, evidently, old – after a steady diet of that being stage managed by his handlers for a while – seems ‘more newsworthy’. Um, okaaaay…..
Presumably what’s going to decide this is less the Democrats who will couch-vote (I love that, Nicole!) but by supressed turnout of the ‘plague on both your houses’ type, as well as independents in a very few swing states sucking their teeth in the voting booth & asking themselves ‘is it the crazy one or the senile one?’ Yikes again. That Biden wasn’t told by the DNC that his presidency was going to be one term, and used to generationally shift the party in leadership terms, including the presidential candidate for this election, was myopic utterly in my opinion.
I read a wonderful article a couple of years ago (The Atlantic?) arguing that the Democrats abdicated electoral politics during the 1970s (after being very good a ‘machine’ electoral politics before then) as a consequence of their success in achieving political aims through the courts – particularly Supreme Court decisions then on abortion, affirmative action etc. Whereas the Republicans, being somewhat cornered by that legal dynamic, focused more on electoral process to achieve their goals. And today we see the consequence, ironically at a time those Democrat legal victories are being rolled back. Or so it was argued in the article. And I rather buy this analysis.
Jim Clyburn may or may not be correct, but I rather side with Isy & Huck: I think the boat has sailed, horse bolted, Zimmer frame started rolling, whatever. Unpicking things will almost certainly cause at least as much mess as the current situation, and could easily let more cats (couches?) out the bag to cause mayhem. I say this not least as one thing the Democrats suffer from is cacophony. There are so many sub-sects, many in actual or potential conflict (Muslims & gays? Transexuals & lesbians who are worried about them ‘being women’?, ad infinitum) that the absence of Joe Biden will encourage that cacophony into embarrassing the process one way or another, not least by alienating those middle of the roaders in the swing states who will have an outsized say in the result of the election. Ultimately, I think the Democrats need to figure out how to manage that cacophony much better, not least in light of a Republican opponent who is much better at message management. But now I veer into repeating what’s been compelling said already!
What a mess.
Cheers to all
John
An interesting if a bit long and rambling discussion. That is understandable and will be plenty of opportunities for “could have, should have” later. Today we have less than 120 days to get this done.
Good on you, Bill for calling out the press. Shame on them for
Thank you Bill for focusing on the media’s role in hyping the most “newsworthy” issues, instead of the most important. Failing to call out deluded leadership as a mortal danger to our country’s wellbeing continues to terrify me.
I was shocked, too, that the media jumped to conclusions that Biden should step down even before the airwaves had cooled from the debate broadcast.
Keep up what you’re doing, Bill. You so clearly lay out what’s at stake and why we need to stop hand-wringing and get to work.