The Economy, Crime, Immigration, and National Divisions Loom Large
Is That All?
Well, no. The list of what people worry about runs long, but these four seem to top most polls. There is, as is always the case, a mix of reality and perception going on here. We will look at each one momentarily, but first something unique should be noted.
As I look around the country, talk to people, read a lot of inputs, it seems to me that a couple of things not historically common are shaping public opinions in powerful ways.
One is what I am terming a long-term COVID effect. To say that people are tired of being tired, of being afraid, of being worried would be an understatement. Things are a lot better than they were a year ago but we surely are not back to normal. This has made the nation at large and people individually crabby. No better term for it – we are in something of a national bad mood. Maybe if we all got a banana split and a massage we would feel better. But so far – crabby rules.
Actually, this is not completely new, just the fact that COVID is the causative agent is new. The history of pandemics consistently shows populations demonstrating such a mindset after a long period of plague. We are just the latest bunch.
You can see how this affects things. As we will discuss in a moment, the economy overall is doing great. Biden has had the best first year economy of any president in modern history. Yet people are fixated on inflation, labor shortages, and supply issues to the exclusion of all the good news.
Let’s check in on the Four Horsemen of Public Apocalypse Fears
The Economy
As already noted, the economy is in great shape overall, and leads the world by wide margins. The legislation Biden pushed through at the outset did exactly what it should have done, to great benefit in several criteria. Unemployment is well below 4%, poverty is at its lowest rate in years, the deficit is down, our trade balance is looking better. Heck of a good story to share.
But inflation worries people, a lot. It should – rampant inflation, or its evil twin stagflation) can sap the life out of an economy and wipe out the middle class. Jimmy Carter lost his reelection bid in no small part because people were paying 18% mortgage rates.
So, it is a fair worry, but let’s get realistic on this. The economy, ours and the world’s was dead in the water for most of two years. When it started coming back to life, inflation was inevitable. Add to that the supply chain disruptions still ongoing and you get another layer of inflation. Add to that the real and psychological effects of Russia’s war on Ukraine and it ratches up further. Finally, look at all the sectors of the economy where there really is no competition and so it is an easy time to price gouge.
It is difficult for me to envision what else the Administration and the Federal Reserve could do beyond what they are already doing. I think the odds are good that the inflation rate will cool starting this Summer, but it will be with us for a bit yet. If the Republicans have offered one single useful idea on this, I must have missed the memo.
There is no doubt that the higher prices are overwhelming recent and much needed pay raises. Still, things are relative. I saw an interesting note this week that when factoring in inflation and average vehicle gas milage we were paying way more for gas in the 1950’s than we are now.
Two excellent points Biden has made that I hope get hammered home. Every few years we find ourselves hostage to some foreign power because of energy. Let’s get off our butts, convert to renewables on a large scale and tell the petroleum peddlers to take a hike. Then, let’s get a realistic immigration program (more on that momentarily) and hire the laborers we need for our economy to function well.
Crime
Perhaps this is another pandemic effect. Some categories of crime are down but others are way up. Murders are up. People lashing out violently seems a pattern everywhere. There is not a lot that can be done at the federal level on this, but it makes great campaign fodder.
The Biden administration is calling for police reform AND more funds to do that correctly. The overall numbers are mixed and as long as getting a gun is so easy in so many places, we will continue to kill each other at a brisk pace. But know that the country is not about to drown in a crime wave.
Immigration
Here we have a real mixed bag. The Trump administration screwed up everything possible about immigration and we are still paying that price everywhere we look. But there is a constant surge on our Southern border that makes a lot of people nervous and a lot of Republican politicians happy to throw stones.
On the other hand, we now have a permanent labor shortage that could only be ameliorated by increased immigration. As always, we are overdue for a smart, comprehensive immigration policy. We know what that looks like, but the votes are never there. This is what stupidity looks like on a large scale. We could do the humane thing and solve a lot of our problems if only we could coalesce around rational policies.
National Divisions
There are those who thrive on division and anger, but I think it fair to say most people are sick of the national tensions and would like to see things improve. Biden made it one of his hallmarks to try making that happen.
Unfortunately, he has few if any partners in such an effort; we are about as divided as ever. Being this divided this long is a dangerous thing for democracy and domestic tranquility. People tend to blame Biden because he took up the challenge in his campaign. No delivery on that one, and so he takes a hit.
What is Next?
The midterm elections are next. Traditionally, the president’s party looses ground in the midterms but it is too soon to call this one. The Republicans have said so many things that are extreme and nuts and have pushed so many bad laws, a lot is at play among voters. Time will tell.
In the meantime, we might want to think about climate change, aggressive totalitarian regimes, the next round of COVID…
Having fun yet? Take a deep breath. We might pull at least some of this off after all.
Bill Clontz
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