Elections Have Consequences
Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid
The proposed Trump budget essentially guts Medicaid and dumps the resulting deficit of funding onto the states. If you think Social Security and Medicare are not next, I have a bridge I would like to sell you. This is simply the start of gutting our social care networks, which are already less than almost every other developed country model. People will be hurt, people will die, states will be saddled with impossible burdens. A lot of Trump voters are about to find a reconning coming their way, with much more to follow in other budget items. Red states get way more in these types of funds and they are about to hit the wall.
On a longer term note, talk is of Social Security hitting shortfalls within about a decade. The results are often envisioned as reduced benefits and/or older retirement ages. On top of that, projections are that social security premiums could nearly double within a decade, just trying to stay solvent. Simply increasing the ceiling on income taxable for social security, having the wealthy contribute more fairly, would solve this problem easily and quickly. Shame on us if we fail this one.
Speaking of Social Security – How About No Taxes on Tips or Social Security Payments?
It is easy to understand the appeal of this idea. Heck, I draw on Social Security; making that resource tax free puts a fair amount of money in my pocket every month. But this is terrible economic policy. These tax evasions would deprive the US Treasury of billions of dollars and increase the deficit even more than Trump already has increased it.
And for those getting tips, not paying taxes (including social security taxes) on them will substantially lower their baselines for what they can expect to draw in social security when that time comes for them. This is a classic example of pay me now or pay me later but pay you will. Trump could care less about the outcome on the deficit or on the retirement income of workers. He offers to sucker punch them.
A Busy Supreme Court
Mercifully, this poor excuse for a Supreme Court is done for the year, expect for some likely “emergency” actions. Few headlines coming out between now and October. They decided almost 70 cases this year. Most of the major ones, in my view, where terrible for the country and our system of government. Knowing what we all know of Trump now, it is remarkable to look at the slack this court cuts him and the deference they offer up to the Administration.
One of the odd and more damaging trends we saw this year is the granting of temporary authority to do something while the matter is under substantive consideration. This is backwards. Case in point: the Court has said that on a temporary basis, the Administration can mass deport people to third countries, just to get rid of them. People are being sent to South Sudan, for Pete’s sake! Let’s suppose that in the end, the legal system decides that is not OK as a matter of legal policy and forbids it going forward. Too bad for those already deported under the temporary authority.
There are a number of decisions like that this year that truly make no sense. If it is possible a policy will not stand review, why let it operate temporarily, with life changing impacts for individuals and families? Decency and caution dictate not allowing such actions until substantive review and decisions are made.
I keep saying this is the worst Supreme Court in modern times. They insist on digging the hole deeper, almost daily.
Law Enforcement Gone Rogue
The pattern now of ICE and other agencies showing up places in unmarked vehicles, with masks on and no ID on officers is unacceptable. There are times and places for undercover work, but that is not what is going on now. This is nothing more than an effort to intimidate, cause fear, and avoid accountability.
A law enforcement vehicle should be clearly marked. Officers should have clear ID of their agency and something like a badge number clearly identifiable (not names). False claims have been made that this is a necessary security measure for these personnel. The actual number of cases of any of them being endangered are miniscule, inherent to the work they do. When we get a real Congress and an Administration rooted in democracy, hard wired regulations and laws need to be established to ensure this does not happen again.
The current mess turns law enforcement into thuggery. And don’t even start me on the images of wheel chaired seniors who came to protest pending budget cuts in Congress last week, being tied up by security personnel. Shameful excess.
The Democrats Seem Leaderless and Unfocused – I Have Good News and Bad News
Many have rightly bemoaned that no one seems to be in charge nationally for the Democrats and messaging is about at a useless stage (except in asking for money – that is robust). The good news is that this is perfectly normal following a sweeping election defeat. Every party spends a couple of years in the wilderness, working its way back to where it should be. This happens and should run its course.
The bad news is that they have an opposition this time working overtime to destroy pretty much everything that makes America what it is and what it aspires to be. They don’t have a couple of years to get back into the game.
Which takes us to the fascinating win of Mr. Mamdi in the Democratic primary to be the next mayor of New York City. Fascinating. Equally fascinating is the mixed reaction nationally. The question is asked whether this is good news or bad news. I think the answer is Yes – a bit of both. Mamdi clearly taps into the justifiable national anger and frustration with the power of the wealthy and the eagerness for new blood in leadership.
But he also is extraordinarily inexperienced for this job; should he win, he will need impressive partnerships to pull off government of that city. Much of what he says rings true to a lot of people: more reasonable rent, a suitable wealth tax, even free bus rides. Other elements, such as overextending rent control and the city running grocery stores strike me as classic failed socialism. This one will be fascinating to watch in the coming weeks and months, as a new and potentially powerful element in national poltics.
Tariffs and Summits
Trump announced last week that negotiations were off the table with Canada, because they took some measures that hurt some of Trump’s technology buddies. As best I can count, this puts us at Tariffs Version 37, or there abouts. The July deadline for deals now appears slipped to September and I bet such deadline will slip again or just do away. What has been gained so far, mostly with the UK and China, are pretty empty.
The stock market has gained back most of its loss from the announcement of tariffs – the market is beginning to think most of this will just dribble off the stage. That would be good. Can you imagine being the head of Apple, knowing you need to annoyance the price of iphones in September? What gets tacked onto your cost depends on what mood an 80 year old lightweight wakes up in on any given day.
Similarly, the G7 and NATO summits of recent days show clearly that world leaders will work with or around Trump as they need to, but have decided they will not let him dominate global decisions just because he is the American president for now. America’s power to influence and prestige to lead have been immeasurably damaged and is unlikely to ever get back to where it was before Trump II appeared. What a shame.
See You Next Week
As this is being written, the Senate is trying to figure out how to complete its work on Trumps budget, which legislators in both parties hate for a variety of reasons, which the Senate Parliamentarian has carved up like cheap stake, and to which the Republicans are trying to use Funny Math to make it passable.
I expect, and hope, they will largely fail. Maybe this fight will be the one that Alaska Senator Murkowski finally draws the line and changes party. She would be a welcome and serious addition to the Democratic roster.
Bill Clontz
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