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This Has Nothing To Do With Traditional Conservative/Liberal Arguments
Remember the Old Days?
Once upon a time, our political debates pretty much revolved around two sets of priorities/belief systems, both seeking a better America for all, but choosing different paths.
Republicans were generally thought to be pro-business, but that included small business. They sought smaller government where feasible, sought to minimize taxes, and expected America to be a leader on the world stage. Republicans abhorred deficit spending at any level. They emphasized a moral code of traditional values. These folks were often on the lookout for corruption, and took part in vigorous oversight of the executive branch by Congress.
Democrats leaned toward pro-labor and pro-union stances. They believed part of the role of government was to help people improve their lives and thus contribute more over time to the nation. Government has a role to be a referee in support of a fair national life. They also saw America as an international leader, with perhaps more emphasis on teamwork and alliances than just a strong America. Democrats also worried about deficit spending but saw some level of such finances as appropriate for a national government and manageable. (Note that while the economy generally and deficit spending specifically have generally done better under Democrats, neither party really stepped up to deal with deficits).
Both parties supported the rule of law and the irrefutable foundation of the Constitution.
Those days are long gone, at least on the Republican side of things. The proposed budget, and a long list of other actions and statements make it clear that the Republican party we knew is dead and buried. It is a long budget (over 1100 pages), but it’s not hard to pick out the important parts. Whether the thing that replaces the old Republican party has a life cycle or not will determine if America has a life cycle yet or is in a state of permanent degradation. The proposed budget is the single clearest illustration of the choices before us as a nation.
Start With Understanding The US Compared to Other Advanced Countries
Two almost universal examples in other advanced countries come to mind.
One, health care. In pretty well no other advanced country is it likely that you could die for lack of medical care because you could not afford it. Nor are you at risk of loosing everything you saved and earned over a life-time to pay medical bills. In most of these countries, the medical system is government run, although some have a combined public-private mix, with the government setting the rules.
Two, education. It is patently obvious that higher education, be it college or trade schools, increase the chances of people having a better life and contributing more to society. In most countries, such education is free to the individual/family or is at least highly subsidized. The idea of starting out one’s adult life with massive education debt, often to commercial activities that work like a mill town of old, in that the debt is never successfully paid off, would be seen as bizarre everywhere but America.
Let us be clear that these two realities mean higher taxes for people, and in some cases, increased deficit spending. But other countries consider these to be proven investments that pay back financially, make for a better country to live in, and is the right approach morally – we are our brother’s keepers to at least some degree. By any reasonable measuring criteria, they seem to be correct.
Why The Difference?
It is perhaps helpful to recognize that America has long been an outrider on social investments, compared to almost every other advanced country. We have made some progress in some areas but are light years behind most comparable countries.
As we have noted before in this space, being a powerful, continental-sized country, isolated by oceans on two sides and with only two neighbors, America tends to think its challenges and opportunities are unique. They often are not. We would do well to look seriously at what everyone else is doing and ask ourselves if there might be lessons therein for us.
With that difference in background and the elements that Trump has brought into government, let’s do a quick count on who wins and who looses.
Team Trump Goals
As noted, this administration is not about more efficient government or reduced spending. Its goals are as follows:
- Dismantle the government – Don’t improve it, eliminate it, anywhere you can.
- Build distrust of government – As the government gets ever weaker on purpose, build distrust in government as a partner to its citizens.
- Privatize everything possible – As functions are stripped from government, privatize those functions (and ensure your buddies get sweetheart deals/lead time to get great contracts).
- Lock in wealth, distribution patterns – We have been moving toward a level of unequal economic distribution and opportunities for a long time. We are approaching the levels that lead to the Great Depression in 1929. This group wants to manipulate government and erase oversight and regulation to lock in advantages for the top 1% at everyone else’s expense.
- Profit personally- What the rest of us seek as corruption and criminal conduct, these folks see as the natural fruits of power. You and I underwrite all those costs.
- Centralize control of education and culture – To ensure the America they envision, insert strong government dictates into education and culture, while at the same time restricting freedom of thought and resources to these two sectors. Keep people poor, uneducated, angry, and always thinking of “them” vs “us” and you can run this scam in perpetuity. The president will decide what exhibits go in museums, what subjects are taught in schools and universities, what performances will go on at the Kennedy Center.
Team Trump Victims
In short, everyone will lose, except the 1%. Specifically:
- Poor people – Most of which, ironically, live in Red states and many of whom voted for Trump. A long list of essential programs, starting with Medicaid and Medicare will disappear for millions. Life will be worse, people will die – not an exaggeration to note that.
- Seniors- Social Security hits (staffing, funding), and a long list of medical and social programs will hit seniors hard, just in the time of life they have few options to adjust or recover.
- Medical Research – America has led the world for decades in medical research, most of it led and/or underwritten by government teams and funds. Not anymore. We are replacing research with conspiracy theories and snake oil salesmen.
- Science – Same future as medical research. We are moving from leadership to The Land of Conspiracy Theories. The world will suffer. Eventually, others will take more of the lead, but the cost in years lost will be high. I often wondered where we would be today had we as Western civilization had not lost 1,000 years to the Dark Ages. We may get to see some of that up close and personal.
- Weather – All over the world, weather is increasingly violent and unpredictable. We know much of that comes from climate change. This administration denies the cause, pulls the rug out from under efforts to get right, and is shutting down even the ability to monitor and warn. Want a weather forecast? Better hope you can find a good one commercially, at an outrageous subscription cost.
- Alliances – America chose Trump twice. Why would any country assume we are reliable going forward. America will likely always have important roles in the world, but we have thrown out the role of the assumed leader in almost every domain.
And More…
- Universities – Foreign students are a gold mine in intellect, diversity, and performance. Many remain in America after graduation, doing important research and making vital economic contributions. That pool is drying up quickly. As a foreign student, would you come here now, especially if other advanced countries are encouraging you to come stay with them?
- Those in Disaster Areas – Trump has long made it clear he thinks disasters in your area are your problem. He sees no national roll in helping out. Thus, the idea of killing off FEMA. Things like national flood insurance are likely next. The Forest Service and others are already being gutted. Large, wealthier states could struggle through perhaps in such a scenario. Small, poor states would not have a chance to handle such things.
- State and Local Governments – The effects here are HUGE and EVERYWHERE. Trump plans to dump everything he can on states. Cutting $500 billion or more from Medicare is in the plan. That burden falls to the states OR the availability of care simply disappears for something like 8 million people. In a longer list of program areas than I can list, Trump’s budget dumps everything on states.
- The Legal System/Rule of Law – There is a small section in the budget that would prevent judges from accessing funds to enforce rulings. That would be the nail in the coffin of judicial independence and the Rule of Law. We will have crossed the line into an effective dictatorship with no counter-balance.
- National Debt – trump shot it up last time. He is doing that on steroids this time, and seeks unlimited debt authority to make sure no one can stop him. Best estimates are that this budget will increase the national debt by $8-$10 TRILLION dollars over the next decade. All for less government services and more tax breaks for the privileged.
Team Trump Winners
You know the list already. Billionaires, large corporations, virtual money speculators, foreign dictators, and foreign businesspeople who do business with Trump will do splendidly.
Pretty short list, isn’t it? Everyone else will lose.
What Next?
Most do not expect the House version of the budget to pass in the Senate. What changes will come from the Senate and what could pass both houses is, to me, a complete mystery at this point. Still, note that I have generally not called this just “the Trump budget,” but instead called it “the Republican budget.” This monstrosity – the largest proposed realignment of wealth distribution in modern history – happens because Republican legislators vote for it.
What hopes I have are in the courts, in continued mass protests, in flooding congressional offices with mail and calls – with a national movement to say NO.
Let’s see if that happens.
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(1) Join the conversation. Your voice counts here.
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