Too Soon to Say Yet, But Signs of a Dying Campaign are Growing
Warning – First, A 100-Foot Tall, Bright Red Caveat
You are about to read about several signs of a collapsing Trump campaign. The signs are clearly there. BUT THE CONCLUSION IS NOT. The last vote will not be cast for 15 more days – that is forever in politics. Some states are looking promising for Biden but too close to count them as almost sure wins.
I have always lived by the philosophy that one should approach any election with a good dose of anger and fear. Double that for this one. You have all seen the polls – national and in key states – which do look encouraging.
Unlike 2016, damn few people are undecided at this point. Many millions have already voted. All that feeds the narrative you are about to read. But take it all with a grain of salt.
Signs from The Orange One Himself
Trump has taken up what appears to me as waxing a bit nostalgic at his rallies of late. He enjoys the crowds and likes playing his old favorites. The man is still running against Secretary Clinton! The rallies don’t make much sense at this point. He has his core voters. One would think he would be looking for opportunities to engage others. Not happening. I thought he looked tired at his town hall last week.
Others have noted that he has never responded to questions about his agenda for a second term. Not all that unusual for someone intellectually lazy. But it might also be the sign of a man who knows there is little utility in thinking about that. Comments like he might never be heard from again or might leave the country. These are odd things for a man to say if he thought he might win.
I would not be surprised if he railed against the Debate Commission over some rule for this week’s debate and refuses to show up. You don’t walk away from an opportunity to debate if you think you can score some voters.
Signs from the Campaign
The campaign is cancelling media buys around the country. They are arguing about how best to spend their dwindling cash reserves. A few big donors have thrown in some late cash to help out. Sheldon Adelson just kicked in $75 million for attack ads. This for a super PAC run by the same guy that ran the swift boat campaign against John Kerry – real bottom feeders.
The campaign seems to be in about the same mind set as its candidate. Nothing has worked to either hurt Biden or bring in, much less retain, Trump voters. Every time their candidate chooses to speak or tweet, they seem to lose a few more. His base might like a lot of it, but so what? The math does not add up to victory.
And Now Begins the Denials and Disclaimers
Increasingly, one hears of Republican senators and others who are speaking out now, with great timidity. They speak about something they find objectionable about Trump. Too little, too late, and a loose-loose.
Should Trump win, he will go after even the mildest attack. Ask all the people who used to work for him. Should Trump loose, we will remember where these paragons of courage were during the impeachment hearings. Heck, we will remember where they were for the last four years.
What If All The Signs Are True?
America gets a shot at being a better country. More work than one can imagine awaits us, but a good start is possible. If all this is true, Biden could be looking at more than a win. He could lead a tidal wave, with big electoral college numbers and good impact all the way down the ticket. Watch the Republicans over the next two weeks for signs they have seen the end coming or not.
What If All This Is Not True?
This all likely would not come true for one of two reasons. One, people get complacent, quit calling, campaigning, fund raising. Get lazy and pay the price. Two, the Trump team is planning legal and court shenanigans at every level, all over the country. If the vote is overwhelming, those efforts likely will die out quickly. But if the vote is close in several key states, the risk is high they could pull it off.
Trump has appointed several hundred federal judges. Many have extreme views and personal loyalty. If the latest Supreme Court nominee is seated, as seems likely, something to note. There will be three justices who worked directly to stop the vote count in Florida. They gave the presidency to Bush by 700 votes. How do you think they might handle a Trump case?
This is Almost Over
The last vote will be cast in a few days. The count may take longer, but perhaps not as long as many fear. I don’t know about you, but I plan to do SOMETHING to help the process every day. I am going to poll greet, write letters, make a few donations, maybe make a few phone calls. Trump is evil, lazy, unfocused, and shallow. But he is not dumb and he has a survival instinct. Write him off too soon at great peril.
How about you? When you wake up on NOV 4, will you be able to say you did what you could to make a difference?
Bill Clontz
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