NOTHING is certain, but Nov 6 Looks Like a Blue Wave. It is Likely to Bring a Bonus
- The polls increasingly point to November elections as a Blue Wave, if not a Blue Tidal Wave. I am writing this as we await Tropical Depression Florence in our area. This puts me in a wave frame of mind (we expect our immediate area to be fine, for those who might be wondering). Five thoughts come to mind in contemplating November 6:
- One, as noted above, nothing is ever certain. If you want to win, you do the work, right up to the last minute. Take it for granted and you risk it all.
- Two, as always in politics, seven weeks is forever. Who knows what will happen between now and election day. It is likely that Trump and his enabling congress will continue to slide downward. Still, no one knows what variables await us.
- Three, with the above caveats in mind, a major shift is expected in the e next Congress. Importantly, this may also happen in many state legislatures (more on this in a later post when we talk about redistricting). Even Trump supporters should acknowledge that this congress has utterly failed in its role of oversight and checks on power. Even in areas where Republicans disagree with the president (tariffs, trade wars, fights our allies, etc.), they choose to do nothing. They have the tools, but do not use them.
- Four, the composition of this congress would be dramatically different. It will look a lot more like America. Expect many more women, veterans, political newcomers, minorities, and religious and ethnic diversity. This will be a Democratic phenomenon. I hope someday this trend crosses into the Republicans. If not, then to whatever replaces them as a center right party.
- Five, there could well come a bonus out of all this. In the wake of Watergate, we got a wave of reformers and new leaders in the congress that served us well for many years. A lot of good legislation came out of the post-Watergate era. We can hope that could be the case in the post-Trump era as well. Correcting errors and excesses of the current time would be on the agenda. Of equal importance, a new pattern of accomplishment and public service will emerge. I find that likely and encouraging.
Let us assume for a moment that all we have said so far in this post comes to pass. Good news, indeed. But what could derail it all, even if it came to pass? Two things could do that.
One, who leads the congregational Democrats going forward? If that becomes a bitter fight (which I do not expect, but it is possible), a lot of energy and unity would be lost. I am something of a fan of both Pelosi and Schumer for many reasons. They do not always get the credit they deserve in a tough working environment for them. But it is time for a change.
A new Democratic majority will find it hard to make the case for a new day with the same leadership of the past. People need to see new faces, hear new voices. The talent is there; time to make room for them. The current leaders may be too eager to hang on. Time will tell.
Two, the risk of expectations disappointment. A Democratic majority in one or both house of congress can begin a sane process of investigations and oversight. But their ability to pass legislation and get it signed would be limited. There is a risk that people will empower them in 2018 and come into 2020 thinking they did not deliver.
For the Democrats to avoid this risk, they need to avoid the protracted leadership fight. They need to articulate their priorities and a clear vision for what they can do for the next two years. If that vision is only investigating the Trump administration, they will fall short. They need to govern as well.
It would help if a leading candidate emerges in 2019. To use a parliamentary term, we could use a “shadow government,” laying out what they would do in 2020. Tell us the kind of people they would have in the cabinet and in other leadership positions. That is, I expect, too much to hope for, but the closer they come, the more likely they are to frame the 2020 elections in their terms.
November 6 is 51 days away. Don’t go to the polls alone. Take a couple of people with you to vote. Or a car load of them.
Bill Clontz
If you find this blog worthy of your time and curiosity, I invite you to do two things:
(1) Join the conversation. Your voice counts here.
(2) Share this post with friends and colleagues. Share a link in your emails and social media posts. Let’s grow our circle.
I still like John Kerry. Secretary of State experience a plus in these volatile times. Maybe a younger dynamic candidate will surface next year. Good advice about setting rationale expectations for what can be accomplished the next two years even if Dems take the house. Time to focus on 2020 should start immediately after
the mid-terms.
The most important thing the new Congress could do is renew all of the Voting Rights Act. And then reform voting and re-districting in the U.S. A law mandating nonpartisan re-districting commissions and fully funding the 2020 Census would be a good start also.