Helping People See How Mislead They Have Been
The Campaign Overview
By now, it should be obvious to just about everyone that the Harris- Walz lead is not just a honeymoon bubble. This level of interest, engagement, commitment, and enthusiasm is something rarely seen in national politics. A new coalition is forming, building around parts of the Biden and Obama coalitions that could be really strong. Especially encouraging is the patterns being witnessed among youth, minorities, and Hispanics. Impressive stuff.
But we still have 83 days to go, and that is forever in politics. Assuming it goes well, the convention will provide a bump, and begin articulating more policy positions. There is at least one debate coming (not sure more than that make much sense for several reasons), and perhaps a VP debate. Both should go well for the Democrats, but anyone could have an off night. Ask Joe.
And surely something of importance will be screwed up in the coming weeks. That is almost inevitable. The important elements will be how quickly the Harris team recognizes the failure, how quickly they repair it, and how well they speak about it. They should do well on all 3 counts, but time will tell if they do or not.
Two Issues
Given the actual history, it seems remarkable that anyone would think so, but a lot of people, a majority even at this point, give Trump higher marks on the economy and on immigration. Crime sometimes is in this count as well, but not as strongly. Let’s take a little time to go over why people might lean toward Trump on these issues and what might be helpful in highlighting for their consideration.
For the core Trumpers, none of this will make much difference. But for the undecided or those for whom these are the deciding issue, it is worth the effort to engage and help them come to a better decision themselves. We will start with the economy for today, come back to immigration and perhaps crime at a later time.
The Economy
People who think Trump might be the better candidate for the economy tend to do so for two reasons. One is understandable. The other is a case of being fooled.
The understandable one is that people feel beat up by inflation, especially in the food sector. They really are paying a lot more than they did a few years ago. Why is that? Mostly, because when coming out of a recession (or as I refer to it, the Trump Recession), a surge in economic activity is essential and that, inevitably, comes with some degree of inflation. The Administration and the Fed did a really good job of catching this and beating it down about as well as one could expect, but the price rises were real and long lasting. So, people are not happy. They blame whoever is in charge and tend to think maybe someone else could do better.
The fact that we as a country controlled this and had an economic recovery that is the envy of the planet does not outweigh the fact that your grocery bill is up, a lot. People get mad about that and blame the government, even though its ability to control such economic factors is limited at best. Sometimes the same people who are mad at the government for costs are the same ones that decry too much government authority generally. That does not connect, but its understandable.
The other rising cost factor is that many companies have used the recovery period to mask increased profits by overcharging and/or reducing what is delivered for a set cost. There actually are not many things the government can do about that, but at least Biden is calling it out. It would be helpful to more widely cite actual examples and encourage people to shop elsewhere as a result.
The Businessman
The other argument one hears is that Trump has been such a successful businessman, he must really understand economics better than others. This one is complete BS and people who believe this could use some gentle, factual reminders that they should be asked to at least consider. Some examples:
- Trump was born with a silver spoon in his mouth. He built nothing from scratch; he inherited a generally successful business and a ton of money from his father.
- No less than six of Trump’s businesses failed and went bankrupt. Remember the last one, Trump” University?” He paid a $20 million fine for fraud for that one, just as he was taking office. This was a harbinger of things to come. His business model is “pay no attention to the man behind the screen.”
- Trump is famous for cheating his subcontractors and partners. No one businessperson in the country has been sued so often for breach of contract and related charges. What profits he has made consist in large part in money he stole from others. Seem a good business model to you? Yeah, me neither.
- In all the various business sectors Trump has worked (construction, real estate, transport, luxury products) has he been an industry leader or a top producer. Not one.
Trump in Government
One could be forgiven in liking some of what Trump says he would do if allowed back in the White House. His actual record in government speaks for itself:
- He engendered the single largest increase in the public debt of any president in history. This was not an element of the pandemic- he set that course with the massive tax cut he got in his first year. That cut gave a token pittance to most taxpayers and gave a huge bonus to the wealthy and big business.
- Trump’s line was that this enables the job creators. Folks who buy this have endorsed this drip down effect since Reagan. It has not worked, not once. Biden took the opposite approach and set 50 year economic records.
- Trump’s trade wars, pretty much with everyone, costs us billions and lost valuable markets, especially in agriculture.
- Trump’s constant promise to fix our badly ailing infrastructure got to be a weekly joke. He never did anything meaningful in any infrastructure element, unless you count a few miles of worthless border wall at insane prices (much of it going to supporters of Trump).
- Trump inherited a healthy economy from Obama and rode that wagon for about a year, until his tax cuts and the pandemic set in. He never recovered from either. In every economic category that counts, he failed miserably. In every one of those same categories, Biden set extraordinary records.
Bottom Line
All of the above tells anyone who is willing to look at the record that Trump was a third-rate businessman and was a terrible president for the economy. We could argue all day about what one likes or dislikes, but the numbers don’t lie.
The man is not and never has been very good at any of this. Pretty well every economist on record has stated categorically that if he does what he says he wants to do next time, the US will go quickly into a steep recession.
He is a proven looser, ready to take us down with him. Why on earth would anyone in their right mind sign up for that? These are big issues, but not as complicated as one might think. The proof is in the data, available to us all. Let us share it.
See you next week.
Bill Clontz
If you find this blog worthy of your time and curiosity, I invite you to do three things:
(1) Join the conversation. Your voice counts here. If you wish to share COMMENTS anonymously, make the last word in your comment “PRIVATE.” I will assure your privacy via anonymity.
(2) Share the word about this post with friends and colleagues. Share a link in your emails and social media posts (https://agentsofreason.com).
(3) You are welcome to share this post with anyone. It is easy to pass on via email, of course, but also on Facebook, LinkedIn, or Reddit; simply click on the links for these services at the end of this article.
Let’s grow our circle.