No Shortage Of Potential Big Deal Events In These Days
Are We A Day Late?
Yes, we are a day late. This blog normally posts on Tuesday, but we had some technical speed bumps and in any case, it seemed better to wait a day to see what the elections developed. Boy, did those elections have an impact! Glad we waited to communicate. We have a lot to reflect upon.
Elections
Three local elections took place this week that have national implications. They are the governorship of VA and of NJ, and the mayor’s race in New York City. One never knows these days, but Democrats looked pretty good for all three races. In fact, they did spectacularly well across the board, everywhere. This is interesting for at least two reasons.
One, the differences of the candidates. both the governor’s races are led by Democrats that are centrists, concentrating on the economy and related issues, being specific about what is wrong and being careful not to overpromise. The Democratic mayoral candidate in NYC is actually a Democratic Socialist, with a much more aggressive agenda, although not as aggressive or wild as some claim. He is capturing a huge portion of the potential youth vote.
There are folks out there saying either model – centrist or aggressive is “THE” formula Democrats must follow nationally if they are to win broadly. I suspect there is a bit of truth in both arguments. Democrats may be forced to tune their candidates to specific areas, while weaving a platform that carries nationally. Not easy, but doable.
Something of a small footnote on the NYC mayor’s race. It has been a real disappoint in watching what now Independent Candidate (since he lost the Democratic primary) Cuomo has become. There was a time a couple of decades ago I thought he had presidential potential – he certainly comes from a great gene pool for that. But his governorship ended about as badly as possible on many fronts and on this campaign, he has dabbled in racism, antimuslim propaganda, and hyperbole. The fact that he and outgoing mayor Adams have teamed up tells you all you need to know about a values-free campaign. Disappointing to say the least.
The other reason this election day is so interesting is that it likely clearly a forum on Trump and candidates who are allied with him. The results are bad news for Trump and company. That is normal for midterms, but if people are as unhappy as they say they are, the effect should be profound going into the midterms next year. Let’s see what actually happens.
Just To Recap The Results Of Tuesday’s Voting
Zohran Mamdani, 34, will be the next mayor of New York City, the youngest in more than a century. The democratic socialist will also be the city’s first Muslim mayor. The line to get into Mamdani’s victory party stretched over a quarter mile around the venue. NY Times journalist Elizabeth Dias wrote, “the most prominent face of progressive religion in the Democratic Party is not a liberal Christian but a Muslim.” Think about it: the new mayor of America’s largest city is a young Muslim, born of Indian parents in Africa, who grew up here and is now the incoming mayor. How American a story can you get?!
Abigail Spanberger will be Virginia’s first female governor. She is joined by a female Muslim Lt Governor, a Democratic Attorney General, and control of both houses of the legislature (a huge margin in the lower house). Literally every single county in VA moved more Democratic.
In New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill cruised to victory in a governor’s race that polls had projected would be neck and neck.
In California, voters passed a ballot measure to redraw the state’s maps in Democrats’ favor, which is likely to yield as many as five House seats for the party next year, and did so by a 2 to 1 margin. This also gives the CA governor more ammunition for a possible presidential run in 2028.
Turnout was extraordinary everywhere: The New York mayor’s race drew more than two million voters, almost double the 1.1 million people who voted for mayor four years ago. The New Jersey governor’s race topped three million votes for the first time.
In other areas:
- In Maine, voters rejected a ballot measure that would haveadded voting restrictions, and they approved a measure that enables families to try to get atroubled relative’s guns taken away.
- In Pennsylvania, votersgranted new 10-year termsto three Democratic justices on the state’s supreme court.
- In Detroit,Mary Sheffield became the city’s first female mayorand the first new mayor in a dozen years.
- The big night for Democrats extended beyond the highlight races: In an upset, Democratsousted two Republican members of Georgia’s utility board, a statewide commission that hasn’t had a Democratic member
- Latino voters had been drifting toward Trump and Republicans. That trend clearly reversed on Tuesday night, pretty well everywhere. We shall see if that sticks, but I expect it will last.
Government Shut Down
A couple of reminders to frame this topic: The current system for legislative action to develop a budget and fund it goes back to the mid 1970’s. Since that time we have had 10 government shutdowns. Almost half of them (4 of the 10) have come on Trump’s watch, including the two longest running shutdowns. This even though Trump publicly said a shutdown is a failure of presidential leadership (of course, he said that when someone else was president).
There is a lot of noise that the shutdown could end as early as this week, maybe next week. Possible of course, and I hope it does; surely the pressure is on the Republicans now, but I have doubts about a real resolution in the next few days. Trump has been completely absent – a deserter of duty – throughout this whole shutdown. He has gone golfing for a few days, did an international trip, threw a big party reminiscent of the “let them eat cake” philosophy as government workers continued to have no pay, and Trump tries to hold the hungry as negotiating hostages.
There are, apparently, some level of talks going on and Trump finally indicates he might actually meet with congregational leadership on all this (imagine that….). All this is made even worse by the so-called Speaker of the House, who plans to keep the House closed down for at least another week (they have not been at work since mid-July), all to avoid comprise talks and to avoid having the Epstein files subpoenaed.
I actually thought Speaker Johnson had a couple of glimpses of potential early in his tenure. He worked with Democrats minimally but effectively to limit things like government shutdowns. But now he is nothing more than a puppet for Trump, helping to make the Congress completely irrelevant. One of the great things about Democrats regaining the House would be a change in who is the Speaker. At this point, almost anyone would be better.
International Trouble
The UN and the International Criminal Court have begun investigations of Trumps actions in blowing up boats in the Southern hemisphere. If there is any actual intelligence on these targets and any real process of screening and decision making ( a system Obama set up and rigorously followed), it sure is well hidden. I hope someone eventually gets the just departed (suddenly) commander of the US Southern Command to testify about all this and why he left so suddenly.
And in an almost comical footnote to this, the Trump administration said on Monday that they do not need to consult with Congress on these boat attacks, because since the targets have no way to fight back, it’s not really a conflict. I am not making that up. Trump could well, in due course, find he has something else in common with his buddy Putin – Trump could wind up being labelled a war criminal himself. Gee, that would make it hard to go to Europe to pick up his Nobel prize, eh?
Meanwhile, it looks like Trump is preparing to deploy US troops in combat, potentially, in Venezuela and perhaps even in Mexico and in Nigeria. Hopefully, all our troops will report an outbreak of bone spurs….
But Hey, How About That World Series!
So, as usual, there is a lot to think about and a lot to worry about. But the World Series gave us blessed relief for seven remarkable games. I did not watch any of the games live this time around but followed the coverage. This may be ranked one of the better world series matches ever. I actually was pulling for Toronto to win, but hat’s off to both teams. I lost count of the number and type of new records set.
The series reminded us why baseball is such a wonderful sport, one that places a premium on longevity and adaptability. Football declares a champion in one game, after a season of 12-14 games. Ice skating declares champions based on a single performance. And so it is for many sports. Baseball, on the other hand, has about 200 games to decide who is in the playoffs and requires a best of seven games winning streak at season’s end to be named champions. That is why baseball is a near perfect metaphor for life. It is full of issues, subtleties, statistical factors, and luck. What a fine, fine thing to enjoy.
See You Next Week
Maybe we will have a functioning government, sort of, by then, maybe even a Congress in session. Or not. And it will be interesting to see how the Democrats sort out all this good news and define the future course. Normally that sort of shaping up does not happen until after the midterms, a year from now. But these are not normal times. The work needs to be seriously engaged now. The Democrats have an opportunity and a strong bench of talent. What shall they do with all that?
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