Tragedy, Opportunity, Accelerator, Brake? Yes, Likely All of the Above
What This Blog is NOT About
Everyone and their brother started writing about the PA shooting within minutes of the event. Like the debate we talked about earlier, I find it useful to give things a couple of days to sort out at least a little. This blog will not recap the event, blow by blow. We have all had more of that than we need. I remember when it broke on tv, I found myself thinking-
“Oh great. This will be continuous coverage by everyone everywhere for at least the next 24 hours, when no one has any idea about this thing – but talk we will!”
And so, it was.
How Have Public Figures Reacted?
If there ever was a time we needed adult leadership, it is now. It is also in short supply. Biden has made two public appearances that said the right things and reached out to Trump. To his credit, Speaker Johnson also called to tone down the rhetoric, and called for a review and investigation (a legitimate call – any bets on if it will be done responsibly?). Many others have basically done the prayers and thoughts thing.
Unfortunately, a lot of Republicans have only sought to fan the flames. Pretty well all the Republican VP candidates blamed this on the Democrats generally and Biden specifically because, you know, he called out Trump for what he is and what he represents. BS, of course.
Some yahoo House member from GA not only blamed Biden but said Biden gave the orders to shoot. You really can’t get more irresponsible than that. He wont be the last to say this kind of gasoline on the fire thing.
The Competing Conspiracy Theories and Likely Truth
No shortages of instant theories on what happened:
- Trump staged this. I have to admit, that thought occurred to me at the outset.
- Right wingers or even midrange Republicans did it to wrest control from Trump.
- Intifada did it.
- Biden did it.
None of that sounds remotely likely. It will be awhile before we know, assuming we do, but the most likely answer is a lone actor,an out of touch person, who for probably indeterminate reasons, decided to do this. The information so far available looks like this is so, and it is a model repeated over and over among actual and would-be assassins.
A bit ironic that he shot at Trump with an AR-15, the Right’s favorite weapon, one that has a model named after Trump, and the weapon of choice for mass murderers protected by Second Amendment extremists. Would have been ironic indeed for this to have been the weapon that took out their guy.
Who Does This Hurt? Who Does It Help?
It hurts the country; it hurts everyone writ large. It hurts a family who lost a member who died draping himself over his family at the event. It deeply hurts the two families that took injuries. We know nothing about them, but surely it hurts the family of the shooter.
It helps those who want violence and will use this as an excuse to foment more. It likely helps Trump some, although in the end, I will bet not much, although he naturally will seek to get all he can out of this. It surely helps our foreign enemies who will revel in increased tension, more violence, and a boost to Trump’s chances. There is little else they could do that would hurt this country as much as another Trump term in power.
The Worst Possible Outcome
A two-parter. One is more violence by more people for a wide variety of rationales. Two is the real concern: Trump starts insisting on his own security detail. Wonder how that would look? Read up on Hitler’s Brown Shirts before he took power. I will bet that we see this at least proposed, and likely enacted at some level.
Responsibility and Accountability – I
Trump is the right place to start. He and his colleagues have overtly fostered a climate of intimidation and violence, with JAN 6 being the worst but far from the only manifestation. They bear a major responsibility for what has happened and will happen. Unfortunately, the vast majority of them will not accept that responsibility and more than a few of them see the violence as working for them.
Responsibility and Accountability – II
The Secret Service comes out of this badly as well, at just about every level. This has been a troubled organization for over a decade now, going back to major oversights during the Obama Administration. We almost need to start over on the organization – too many issues and shortfalls in too many areas at too many levels.
There seem to be two major shortfalls in this latest shooting. One, a building with that line of site at that distance should have been blocked and/or occupied by either the Secret Service or local law enforcement working under their direction. Add to that the observation that the local law enforcement who saw the shooter did not have radios and you have a genuine failure to plan and coordinate.
The other shortfall was with the crew directly protecting Trump. Twice he stopped the evacuation and stood up to gesture and yell to the crowd. At that point in time, no one could know if this was a single shooter threat or not. The failure of the Service to manhandle Trump into compliance is negligence at a breathtaking level. The fact they did this was one of the things that fed the rumor this was an inside job, and they knew it was OK to stall.
The Secret Service has lost itself in the wilderness. No president nor their family should feel especially safe short of a complete overhaul.
In the Meantime
We have an election to conclude. The Republican convention started just yesterday. Life goes on, things still need to be accomplished. In spite of some concerns expressed, I don’t think last Saturday’s shooting will change much. Trumps true believers will think God saved their man. Everyone else may think many different things, but I don’t see people deciding to vote for Trump because he was shot at by a loner.
Bill Clontz
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A perfect analysis Bill and I agree with it totally! (This is a scary time) Thank you!
The irony that the shooter used an AR-15 is almost too much to wish for. He got off 6 shots and only hit the ear. It will be interesting (?) to hear Trump’s remarks at the convention. The republicans foster violence and will blame Biden for the incident. Just too much irony in the whole incident.
Only nicked an ear, but killed a bystander and seriously wounded two more. Remarkable but not surprising that, as far as we know, midweek after the shooting, Trump has called none of these families.