What an Interesting Intersection We Find Ourselves Occupying
Covid, Round IV is Upon Us – and We Are Not Happy About it
What an emotional roller coaster we have been on. Several months ago, our national situation was looking like a rerun of the Black Plague. The virus was spreading like crazy, everywhere. Hospitals were overflowing. Thousands were dying every day. We saw a glimmer of hope in the Fall as vaccines arrived, but an incompetent and mean-spirited national government wasted the opportunity to move quickly and comprehensively on vaccinations.
A new team took control in Washington. Turns out they knew how to run national efforts, and seemingly overnight, the tide turned. We were on our way to making this thing a manageable nuisance by mid-Summer.
Then the Luddites and Fear Mongers reasserted themselves.
But Wait, There’s More…
Sorry, could not resist using that wording to title this section, as ultimate pitchman Ron Popeil just passed away. There is indeed more to consider now.
Almost as suddenly as the initial success came, the vaccination effort seemed to run out of gas. Some groups of widely varying make up became a national problem. Blacks as a community writ large were suspicious, for understandable reasons. Poor and rural communities succumbed to rumor and inertia; some found no reasonable access to the shots being offered.
There are, of course, the hard core antivaxxers, who fed the flames of distrust and disinformation. If only they could get sick and die alone, but they spread the risk to others. The most venal of our politicians and commentators also have left us with completely unnecessary infection and death rates. Many still keep it up: the governors of Florida, Texas, and South Carolina come to mind, as do the Tucker Carlson types of this world, as those fate should infect immediately – although almost surely, they have gotten the shots themselves.
But in important ways, a corner is being turned. I am more optimistic now than I was just a couple of weeks ago. Some politicians who were part of the problem, by their silence if not active agitation, have come around. The governor of Alabama and Sen Graham, for example. The rate of inoculations is up markedly, especially in the hard-hit areas like Florida and Missouri.
Apparently, the math is finally sinking in among the unvaccinated at large: Almost everyone who is getting infected is unvaccinated. Same for those in the hospital and those dying. Ever younger populations are getting serious infections and dying. Those with shots who get breakthrough infections tend to be few and with very mild symptoms. Images of medical teams telling the stories of people about to go onto ventilators declaring they were wrong, please give me the shot now, being told it is too late for them. Some never come off those respirators.
The Crucial Role of the Private Sector – and Insurance
All of a sudden, Biden’s goal of 70% eligible having at least one shot has arrived. Only a month late – it seemed a long way off in June, but here we are. What changed? Three things, I think.
- People got really angry. We are all facing a retrenchment back into masks and social restrictions because a comparative handful of people refuse to acknowledge what must be done. They are putting us all at renewed risk.
- The aforementioned math started registering among many yet to be inoculated. Louisiana, for example, would be the worst infected nation on earth if it were a separate country. But the inoculation rate there has quadrupled over the last two weeks. Too late to save many, but this kind of rate will make a difference.
- The private sector led the way with ever increasing numbers of mandates- get a shot or go work somewhere else. I am disappointed that more hospitals and local governments are not on board yet, but it could yet build in that direction. Kudos to NY city for showing the way for local government. I doubted they would do it. Good on them.
- Insurance may tip the balance. As soon as the vaccinations are out of emergency authorization and into regular certification (more on that below), insurance companies are likely to advise clients they will not cover any COVID related costs for companies lacking a vaccination mandate. That will largely wipe out the laggards problem.
Where is That Certification of Non-Emergency Status?
Certification of the vaccinations as regular protocols cannot come soon enough. We likely would be in much better position had that already happened. But in fairness, this is a tough one for the FDA. They fear any short cuts or charges of cutting corners on this. It appears full certification is likely to happen around September.
The sooner the better, please. In the meantime, the fact that many millions of people around the world have had the shots with no evidence of long term side effects on any meaningful scale is giving many entities the confidence to go ahead with mandates now, before final certification.
How Does This All End?
It probably doesn’t “end.” We have a pretty decent chance now of blunting the fourth wave, but it still will be a longer Fall than it needed to be. Still, I am betting that by the end of Fall, this will largely be small scale as a management issue in the US and we can point out how many more died because of those who lied for their own reasons about this. We will start thinking more about booster shots, perhaps annually.
But much of the rest of the world is in much worse shape, and that is our challenge, too. Such widespread pools in which to mutate means we all are risk. The US and Europe made some good first efforts, working with the UN, to get vaccinations out. We need to do much more to keep this thing at bay. Pay me now or pay me later.
Bill Clontz
If you find this blog worthy of your time and curiosity, I invite you to do two things:
(1) Join the conversation. Your voice counts here. If you wish to share COMMENTS anonymously, make the last word in your comment “PRIVATE.” I will assure your privacy via anonymity.
(2) Share the word about this post with friends and colleagues. Share a link in your emails and social media posts (https://agentsofreason.com). Let’s grow our circle.