Thoughts on 3 Countries, 1 Forest – and a Jar

January 31, 2013 – The New Year is Already a Month Old and Full of News

New Zealand

Like many people around the world, I was disappointed and saddened to learn of the resignation of NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. She had justifiably caught the world’s attention as a bright, bold leader, a young female just starting a family and while she was at it, dealt with a deadly plague and terrible gun violence effectively.

Her departure could be a complicated set of rationales – hard to tell what was most important. She no doubt felt that as a female leader and a young leader, she faced extra scrutiny and criticism. I suspect that is true on both counts, but I doubt these were the key elements in her decision to leave.

She was “doing it all”, i.e., raising a new family and running a country. She may have decided doing both meant she would not do either as well as she would wish. There may be some of that at work here.

But I expect the biggest factor was those two issues combined with the fact that she was way down in the polls – her party needed a new leader to stand a chance in the next round of elections.

People get tired, even of good leaders, especially in times of hardship like COVID. I hope we see her back on the world stage. She strikes me as the real thing.

Ukraine

Ukraine is finally going to get world-class main battle tanks, primarily German and US models. They are impressive weapons. Given enough of them and time to train on them, they will shape battlefields. Timing has two important elements with all this.

First, it will take months, (perhaps over a year for the US tanks) to arrive, be equipped, and crews ready to fight. Ukraine knows this and will train as hard and fast as possible. Knowing they are coming may give the Ukrainians some important leverage in any talks with the Russians.

Second, the Russians know all this too; I expect they will do everything they can to mount large scale offensives in the Spring to turn the tide of the war and to score some victories before the heavy weapons are deployed in the fight by Ukraine.

Two Footnotes on Ukraine

There is much talk now about corruption in the Ukrainian government. Historically, this is a well-entrenched problem in Ukraine, going back many years. The president has made it clear he is taking this on already and I see no reason to doubt him.

I have some experience with corruption under such circumstances. The company I worked for some years ago was asked to put a team on the ground in a country wherein the dictator has died unexpectedly, and the new leader surprised everyone by taking on a truly massive corruption environment.

We put together a team of inspector generals and finance experts. They brought back 3 interesting conclusions that apply in many such situations:

1) The new government is sincere about taking this on and is trying to do the right thing.

2) The graft was not hard to track. Those who were stealing from the people did so for so long with so much impunity, that they kept good records. They were not afraid of being caught, because everyone was in on the game.

3) Breaking this would take great effort for years. The system was not corrupted; corruption was the system. It had not only to be broken but to be replaced. Here is hoping for the situation in Ukraine to be better than all that. I think it is.

The other footnote is about some of our top end equipment. It is fabulously effective in battle, but much of it is unbelievably complex and extremely difficult to sustain. The Abrams tank runs on what amounts to a jet engine – it actually uses aviation fuel. The complexity of this thing is staggering.

Such systems worry me in sustained combat and surely contributes mightily to the cost of the defense budget. Want another example? Read up on the F35 fighter jet. It has a long history of problems due to complexity and a cost for production and operation that is beyond imagination.

Same for the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier. Same for much of the equipment we gave the Afghans. Once our people left, the contractors left and the home team could not sustain the equipment. This is a systemic problem that we need to do better on going forward.

Israel

Israel is a special country in so many ways, and a valued US ally in a tumultuous region. But I worry about it more now than I ever have. Netanyahu has regained power by putting together a dangerously right wing government.

Some of the key people in it were not long ago considered too extreme to be anywhere close to the mainstream. Now they are the government.

Why Netanyahu is still under investigation and not either on trial or cleared boggles the mind. If he was to have been charged, we might not find Israel where it is today. If he is not to be charged, he is owed being cleared.

I will make no excuse for the poor excuses of Palestinian leadership – many of them are also beyond the pale and responsible for generations of violence and suffering.

Now they are met with an Israeli government eager to legitimize dozens of settlements on the West Bank and to move with maximum aggression in East Jerusalem.

The cycle of violence has already escalated terribly – this will not end well for anyone. It is difficult to imagine normalizing any more relations in the region while all this continues, which means Israel remains at risk.

I think it fair to say that Israel has had for a long time a broken parliamentary system. Too many parties have seats in the parliament; no one can build a coalition without taking on too many partners. Instability rules the day.

Now it has yielded a government that is likely to be at fundamental odds with the US and others on key issues, will hurt its own security, seeks to gut the judicial system, and will push ever more towards an apartheid state that cannot be stable.

Both the peoples on the ground deserve so much better than they are getting.

Let’s End today on Two Happier Notes Than Our First Three Items

 Tongass Forest

 The Biden administration has banned new roads and logging in 9.3 million acres of Alaska’s Tongass National Forest. The rule is effect immediately. This reversed one of the Trump administration’s last and most indefensible attacks on the environment. It made zero sense, and we should all be pleased to see it reversed. The Tongass is a vital global carbon sink, holding nearly twice as much CO2  as the U.S. emits from burning fossil fuels each year. Oh yeah – and it is a beautiful natural space as well. Thanks, President Joe.

 Good Stuff Jars

I ran across this little story a few days ago and thought it worthy of sharing. The idea of acknowledging gratitude every day has been a popular idea for a long time, and it clearly has good phychological returns. Here is someone who took a good idea and carried if further.

A woman in Missouri had a tough start to 2022. She decided she would not let challenges bump good news out of her head when it came her way. She had the idea to create a jar labeled “Good Stuff in 2022.”

All year, she and her husband tucked notes inside of things and people for which they were grateful:  activities, something funny someone said, someone’s success – anything that brought them pleasure, hope, or joy. On New Year’s Eve, they read them all, to be reminded of the wonders of the past year.

Heck of a good idea. Such a list is likely longer than you might expect. I think I will follow her example. You?  Go get a jar.

See you next week.

        Bill Clontz

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